Protecting the Public from the Risk of Political Violence

Second, know how to report genuinely suspicious activity. For imminent threats, call 911. If you do not want to use 911—if, say, you are uncertain about what suspicious activity means—the Department of Homeland Security maintains a directory of state and regional tip lines. The FBI also accepts tips at https://tips.fbi.gov. Most tips are handled without arrests and often result in individuals getting the help they need.

If you are responsible for the safety of an organization or community, RAND’s Mass Attacks Defense Toolkit, offers guidance on preventing, protecting, and responding to mass attacks. The RAND report Keeping Soft Targets and Crowded Places Safe provides recommendations on security and response measures to protect specific locations.

Next, resist the pull of fear, rage, and despair. Terror and anger sell online. As marketing professor and podcaster Scott Galloway put it: “We used to think sex sells. What we found is something better, and that is rage.” Or as Gov. Spencer Cox of Utah put it, “there are conflict entrepreneurs out there who benefit from radicalizing us.” The temptation is to overhype the risk of being attacked by political adversaries or, worse, of “civil war.” Yet even those claiming they are engaging in “civil war” have engaged principally in online vituperation or cancel campaigns, which are far removed from shootings or other violence.

Consider the math regarding assassinations: Over the past year, there have been two attempted assassinations of the president, one attempted assassination of a governor via arson, one assassination of a CEO, two assassinations of state legislators, and now one assassination of major political figure. Given the U.S. population is over 340 million, that works out to be a bit more than one major political attack per 50 million people.

While online threats are far too common, with close to 9,500 threats against members of Congress in 2024 alone, actual physical political violence is rare. From years of working on terrorism and mass violence prevention and comparing what physical violence has been like and how rare it is compared to online activity, I can say comfortably that most online agitators seek influence, money, and power, not prison or death. Americans are far more secure, and much more responsible regarding political violence, than they think they are.

The nation’s strength lies in its ability to confront political violence not with despair, but with resolve and unity. Americans overwhelmingly reject political violence by a ratio of millions to one. Remaining vigilant, supporting one another, and refusing to succumb to online rage and despair can ensure that acts of violence do not define America’s future. The nation has endured far greater challenges, and with vigilance and understanding, the current challenge can be met as well.

John S. Hollywood is a senior decision scientist at RAND. This article is published courtesy of RAND.