Russia Is Helping Prepare China to Attack Taiwan | Israel Can No Longer Wish Palestine Away | Has Pakistan Extended Its Nuclear Umbrella to Riyadh?, and more

Why Autocracies Threaten War: The Case of Venezuela and Guyana  (Christopher Sabatini and Alexandra Farsari, Global Americans)
This article delves into the escalating tensions between Venezuela and Guyana, highlighting how autocratic regimes, such as Nicolás Maduro’s government, are more prone to inter-state aggression, particularly targeting democracies. The ongoing dispute over the Essequibo region – rooted in Venezuela’s historic, territorial claims, fueled by competition over Guyana’s recently discovered oil reserves in the contested region, and exacerbated by Maduro’s domestic legitimacy crisis – serves as a stark example of the risks posed by unchecked democratic backsliding. Despite a CELAC-brokered peace agreement in late 2024, over 5,000 Venezuelan troops remain deployed at the border and the Venezuelan government recently completed a bridge to a military base on an island on the shared border. The risk of open conflict continues, as the recent concerns over a Venezuelan coastguard’s violation of Guyanese waters to approach an offshore oil facility. The agreement’s fragility lies in its failure to address the root causes of Venezuela’s aggression, including Maduro’s illegitimacy, his reliance on nationalism to distract from domestic crises, and attempts to pressure investors eyeing Guyana’s oil resources. To address these challenges, the article proposes a series of policy recommendations, from establishing multilateral bordermonitoring mechanisms to international mediation of Venezuela’s internal political crisis. The article also calls for reforms to strengthen representation for small states like Guyana in the UN Security Council. The piece concludes with an urgent call for coordinated international action to counter democratic backsliding and reduce the risk of autocrats stoking conflict in the region.

Goodbye Petrostates, Hello “Electrostates”: How the Clean Energy Shift Is Reshaping the World Order  (Niusha Shafiabady and Xiaoying Qi, The Conversation)
For more than a century, global geopolitics has revolved around oil and gas. Countries with big fossil fuel reserves, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, have amassed significant wealth and foreign influence, helping shape the world order.
But the global shift toward renewable energy is challenging these power structures. As the world transitions away from oil and gas, renewable energy resources promise to become the new basis for geopolitical influence.
Nations with a bounty of sun and wind, and the capacity to export that energy, have much to gain. So too do nations endowed with critical minerals, and the means to produce the technology required in a low-carbon world.
Say goodbye to the “petrostates” of old, and welcome the rise of the “electrostate”. China is heading the charge – and Australia, if it plays its cards right, could be at its heels.

Russia Is Helping Prepare China to Attack Taiwan, Documents Suggest (Catherine Belton and Christian Shepherd, Washington Post)
Russia is using its battlefield experience to give Chinese airborne units the training and technical knowhow to carry out lightning-fast operations.

Has Pakistan Extended Its Nuclear Umbrella to Riyadh? No One Will Say.  (Rick Noack, Shaiq Hussain and Susannah George, Washington Post)
As U.S. credibility erodes in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia has signed a far-reaching mutual defense pact with Pakistan. But key details of the deal remain unclear.

Israel Is Flattening Parts of Gaza City  (Samuel Granados and Aaron Boxerman, New York Times)
The Israeli military has razed block after block of Gaza City as part of a new ground offensive in what was once the territory’s largest urban center.
Israel’s war against Hamas, which began two years ago, has leveled wide swathes of the Gaza Strip, including the city of Rafah in the south and the town of Beit Hanoun in the north. But the military did not carry out such widespread demolitions in previous Gaza City operations.
This time is different.