Israel's now more likely to attack Iran's nuclear facilities
to launch any pre-emptive strikes against Iran.
Israel currently has two batteries of Arrow 1 missiles operational and is reported to have 100 missiles available. It is upgrading this variant, but is also in the preliminary stages of developing a more advanced version, Arrow-3, with U.S. help.
Israeli officials played down the problems that plagued the California test, saying that these were to be expected in such a complex project. The failure of the Arrow system over several days, with at least three delays, was a critical setback. It was to have been the first test of Arrow’s ability to intercept missiles at extreme range over the vastness of the Pacific Ocean. The Israelis cannot conduct such tests at home because the geography of the Middle East limits the range of such operations.
According to U.S. officials, six months are required to prepare the complex system for testing, but neither the Israeli Defense Ministry nor the Pentagon has indicated a date for a new test.
In the test at the U.S. Navy’s Naval Air Warfare Center/Weapons Division Sea Range at Point Mugu in central California, a Block4 M5 Arrow, coproduced with Boeing, was intended to intercept a dummy Iranian Shehab-3 missile dropped from a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster 700 miles out over the Pacific.
The Shehab-3 has a range of 1,250 miles, capable of hitting Israel. Iran is believed to have as many as 100 Shehab-3s operational.
Iran says it has also recently test-fired a more advanced weapon, the Sejjil-2. This carries solid fuel, which means it can be launched swiftly and without any telltale pre-launch activity. The Shehab, by comparison, uses liquid fuel and takes up to an hour to prepare for launch, which makes it vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes. Thus, the Sejjil could, in theory, get much closer to Israel before Arrow interceptors could be launched than the Shehab.
For the Israelis, Iran’s missiles and its nuclear program, with the potential to produce nuclear warheads, are its biggest security threat. Israel has made it clear it is prepared to mount military strikes against Iran to neutralize that threat.
Clinton’s statement
Israel’s concerns were compounded by the assertion by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the United States would extend a “defense umbrella” over its Arab allies in the Gulf to prevent Iran from dominating the strategic, oil-rich region “once they have a nuclear weapon.” Clinton’s statement was meant prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East by reassuring leading Sunni countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia that they would not have to develop their own nuclear arsenal in response to Iran’s nuclear weapons, because the United States would offer them nuclear security guarantees. During the cold war, such guarantees persuaded Germany, Japan, South Korea and other U.S. allies to abstain from building nuclear weapons of their own.
The Israelis, however, saw Clinton’s statement as an indication that the Obama administration was resigned to living with a nuclear Iran, something the Israelis are not prepared to do.
