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Civil wars in Africa have no link to climate change
Some researchers have argued that environmental variability and shocks, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, drive civil wars in Africa; a new paper investigates the empirical foundation for the claimed relationship in detail, and concludes that climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict; instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: prevalent ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the cold war system
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U.S. officials: terror threat against U.S. diversifying
The terrorism threat against the United States has evolved, with homegrown terrorists and a greater diversity in the scope and methods of attack making it more difficult to prevent them, top security officials told a Senate committee Wednesday; the number of terrorist attacks against the United States increased in the past fifteen months; Napolitano said the nature of terrorist attacks continues to evolve, with recent attacks coming faster and with “less extensive pre-operational planning than previous attempts and with fewer linkages to international terrorist organizations”
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Russia cancels S-300 delivery to Iran
The Russia-made S-300 is the most sophisticated air defense system in the world, and Iran signed a contract to buy them in order to protect its nuclear weapons facilities; Russia has now decided to abrogate the contract — meaning that Iran’s nuclear facilities remain exceedingly vulnerable to destruction from the air, and that the option of attacking these facilities is less daunting than would have been the case otherwise
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DHS gives New York $18 million for radiation detection system
DHS will hand New York $18.5 million today to keep the city’s prototype dirty-bomb detection system running; the nuclear detection operation is run out of an operations center in the city, featuring more than 4,500 pieces of radiation detection equipment, many equipped with GPS locators
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Privacy-focused alternative to Facebook launched
Four NYU students launch Diaspora — a privacy-sensitive alternative to Facebook; Diaspora is a decentralized social network that lets users control their personal data — photos, friend lists, statuses, etc. — by hosting it on their own computers, or on servers they have access to, which are called “seeds”
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Freed Pope plot suspects may sue police for false arrest
U.K. police and counterterrorism authorities are worried that the six men who were arrested Friday on suspicion that they were plotting to assassinate the Pope during his U.K. visit may take legal action for unlawful arrest and detention; the men, all of North African origin, were released Saturday and Sunday after police admitted there was no evidence of a plot
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Resurgent Irish terrorism on agenda North and South
Irish politicians on both sides of the border say resurgent Republican terrorism is a growing problem; tensions grown as community leaders charge that the Northern Irish police have turned a blind eye to the killing of a Belfast man by the Protestant Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF); intelligence sources say the UVF leadership authorized the killing because the man “had flouted their authority”
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Australia: "high risk" of terrorism at Commonwealth Games in India
Australia says there is a “high risk of terrorist attack” in New Delhi as the Indian capital prepares to host the Commonwealth Games, scheduled for 3-14 October; the U.S. State Department issued a travel alert on 1 September urging U.S. citizens to be cautious of their security if they travel to India during the Games
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Delhi proposes unprecedented security at Commonwealth games
The security measures India has put in place for the Commonwealth Games surpass those instituted for Delhi’s Independence Day and Republic Day; in all, the Games will be secured by more than 80,000 Delhi police personnel, 17,500 paramilitary personnel, 3,000 commandos, 100 anti-sabotage teams, more than 200 dogs, and 15 bomb squads
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British man arrested at Amsterdam airport on terrorism suspicion
A British man of Somali ancestry was arrested in Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport for possible links to a terrorist group; the suspect is allegedly linked to Somalia’s most dangerous militant group, al Shabab; militant veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts help train al Shabab fighters, one of the reasons the sophistication of its attacks has risen in recent months; the al Qaeda-linked group in the past has recruited Somali-Americans to carry out suicide bombings in Mogadishu
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Six freed over suspected Pope plot
U.K. police released the six men arrested Friday on suspicion that they plotted to kill the Pope during his U.K. visit; the police, after a thorough search of the homes of the suspects — all men of North African origin — and interviews with neighbors, the police said the men posed no credible threat; one newspaper reports that the men were arrested after been overheard sharing a joke in their canteen; the six all work for Veolia Environmental Services, a contractor which employs 650 on-street staff to keep the streets of Westminster clean
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MI5: Cyber espionage on the rise, but can be easily beaten
MI5 says the Internet has made the threat of espionage by foreign countries higher than ever before, but insisted it is “relatively straightforward” to block attempts to steal data; MI5 has previously written to the bosses of big British companies to warn them of the threat online, particularly from hackers with links to the Chinese intelligence services
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Panel: DHS models for assessing terrorist threats poor
Standard risk models, such as those the DHS uses, assume that threat, vulnerability, and the consequences of risks are constants; an expert panel notes, though, that humans, unlike natural disasters, change their targets and tactics in response to protective measures that the authorities take against them, so the risk factors are no longer constant; the panel urges DHS to develop risk models that react dynamically to changing terrorist tactics; the report also says it may not be possible to quantify all risks: the risks posed by the fear and social disruption caused by terrorists are much harder to quantify than the risk of a bridge being blown up, for example
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MI5: U.K. facing a new wave of terrorist attacks from jihadists, IRA
The head of MI5 says that Britain is facing a wave of terrorist attacks on two fronts from a new generation of al Qaeda extremists and Irish Republican militants who could strike on the mainland; a “significant number” of British residents are training in camps run by the al Qaeda-linked group al Shabaab. As many as 100 Britons of Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and West African backgrounds had traveled to Somalia; in Northern Ireland, there were now thought to be about 600 hard-line Republicans involved in terrorist activity, around half the number during the peak of IRA activity in the 1980s
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Mysterious Venezuelan round-trip "terror flight" to Iran canceled
Flight IR744 — a round-trip flight from Caracas to Tehran with a stop in Damascus — was listed as a regular flight, there was no way that anyone could buy a ticket and travel without being vetted by the Venezuelan or Iranian government; Western intelligence service suspected the flight was used to carry illicit weapons materials to Iran, while bringing Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian operatives to the Western Hemisphere to prepare for a retaliatory strike against the United States if there was an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities;
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More headlines
The long view
Kinetic Operations Bring Authoritarian Violence to Democratic Streets
Foreign interference in democracies has a multifaceted toolkit. In addition to information manipulation, the tactical tools authoritarian actors use to undermine democracy include cyber operations, economic coercion, malign finance, and civil society subversion.
Patriots’ Day: How Far-Right Groups Hijack History and Patriotic Symbols to Advance Their Cause, According to an Expert on Extremism
Extremist groups have attempted to change the meaning of freedom and liberty embedded in Patriots’ Day — a commemoration of the battles of Lexington and Concord – to serve their far-right rhetoric, recruitment, and radicalization. Understanding how patriotic symbols can be exploited offers important insights into how historical narratives may be manipulated, potentially leading to harmful consequences in American society.
Trump Aims to Shut Down State Climate Policies
President Donald Trump has launched an all-out legal attack on states’ authority to set climate change policy. Climate-focused state leaders say his administration has no legal basis to unravel their efforts.
Vaccine Integrity Project Says New FDA Rules on COVID-19 Vaccines Show Lack of Consensus, Clarity
Sidestepping both the FDA’s own Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee and the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), two Trump-appointed FDA leaders penned an opinion piece in the New England Journal of Medicine to announce new, more restrictive, COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. Critics say that not seeking broad input into the new policy, which would help FDA to understand its implications, feasibility, and the potential for unintended consequences, amounts to policy by proclamation.
Twenty-One Things That Are True in Los Angeles
To understand the dangers inherent in deploying the California National Guard – over the strenuous objections of the California governor – and active-duty Marines to deal with anti-ICE protesters, we should remind ourselves of a few elementary truths, writes Benjamin Wittes. Among these truths: “Not all lawful exercises of authority are wise, prudent, or smart”; “Not all crimes require a federal response”; “Avoiding tragic and unnecessary confrontations is generally desirable”; and “It is thus unwise, imprudent, and stupid to take actions for performative reasons that one might reasonably anticipate would increase the risks of such confrontations.”
Luigi Mangione and the Making of a ‘Terrorist’
Discretion is crucial to the American tradition of criminal law, Jacob Ware and Ania Zolyniak write, noting that “lawmakers enact broader statutes to empower prosecutors to pursue justice while entrusting that they will stay within the confines of their authority and screen out the inevitable “absurd” cases that may arise.” Discretion is also vital to maintaining the legitimacy of the legal system. In the prosecution’s case against Luigi Mangione, they charge, “That discretion was abused.”