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Cult of the Drone: At the 2-Year Mark, UAVs Have Changed the Face of War in Ukraine – but Not Outcomes
Unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, have been central to the war in Ukraine. Some analysts claim that drones have reshaped war, yielding not just tactical-level effects, but shaping operational and strategic outcomes as well. Mounting evidence, however, suggests that drones have delivered some tactical and operational successes for both Ukraine and Russia. Yet they are strategically ineffective.
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Are Drones Revolutionizing Warfare? They Do Not, Skeptics Argue
Drones have been employed by both sides to the Russia-Ukraine war on unprecedented scale. The prevalence of drones in Ukraine and other recent conflicts has led some observers to conclude that drones are revolutionizing warfare, while other analysts argue that drones are incremental improvements to existing technologies. These drone-skeptics contend that drones are not fundamentally shifting the character of war.
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Trump-Biden Spat on NATO Highlights Divide on America’s Role in the World
Former President Donald Trump doubled down on his threat that, if elected, he would not defend NATO members who don’t meet defense spending targets. Biden, who has made strengthening coalitions against adversaries the central tenet of his foreign policy, advocates for more international cooperation overall. “Trump is breaking Republican orthodoxy entirely, not only with his isolationism, but with his pandering to autocrats,” said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund research group.
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Attributing Biological Weapons Use
Why is attribution of BW use important? During a biological incident, including BW use, what evidence might provide valuable information to facilitate attribution? What is the state of the science for determining the origin of a biological incident, including BW use? What capabilities does DoD possess or could it develop to facilitate attribution of BW use?
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Maritime Power Shapes the World Order – and Is Undergoing a Sea Change
Western global leadership was the result of centuries of sea mastery. Controlling the global ocean enables the projection of military power all over the world, as well as securing the free flow of goods at sea. The prosperity and security of trading nations strongly depend on the stability of the global maritime supply chain and thus on freedom of navigation. But now Western maritime superiority is being challenged by other rising powers and by insurgent groups.
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U.S. Raids in Iraq and Syria: How Retaliatory Airstrikes Affect Network of Iran-Backed Militias
Iran’s “forward defense” strategy – focused on addressing threats externally before they become ones within its borders – would suggest that Iran will continue to support proxies through weaponry, funding and tactical knowledge to reduce the influence and legitimacy of the U.S. and its allies in the region. This underscores the delicate balance required in responding to Iranian-backed aggression – aiming to safeguard U.S. interests while preventing an escalation into a wider regional confrontation.
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Directed Energy: The Focus on Laser Weapons Intensifies
There a growing interest in directed energy weapons, once considered in the realm of science fiction. How to separate the considerable hype about these futuristic-sounding technologies from their more-nuanced impacts on the real-world battlefields of today and tomorrow?
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The Challenge of Cheap Drones: Finding an Even Cheaper Way to Destroy Them
The sudden proliferation of inexpensive drones in Ukraine is a revolution in warfare. While they vary in size and capability, the economics of defense are particularly stressed by the very cheapest ones, those adapted from civilian models or made with commercially available components.
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Hydrogen Power Takes Drones to the Next Level
Most drones run on electric batteries and can stay aloft no more than about 45 minutes when carrying just a few kilograms. HevenDrones has another solution.
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5 Technologies Keeping Cargo Ships Safe in Turbulent Times
Due to Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea, worldwide shipping is in trouble and the global supply chain faltering. These technologies can help.
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Military AI: New Book Anticipates a World of “Killer Robots” — and the Need to Regulate Them
As artificial intelligence advances, the weapons of war grow evermore capable of killing people without meaningful human oversight, raising troubling questions about the manner today’s and tomorrow’s wars will be carried out, and how autonomous weapons systems could weaken accountability when it comes to the potential violations of international law that attend their deployment.
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Taking Robots and AI to War at Sea
Emphasizing that combination of AI and autonomous systems working in concert with crewed platforms—and with critical human oversight ‘on the loop’—is the logical path to meet a potential challenge of a much more capable and assertive adversary with ambitious plans across the Indo-pacific, and with a potential ability to interfere with Australia’s critical maritime trade.
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Diving into Nuclear Submarines
In 2021, the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia formed a partnership, dubbed AUKUS, which will allow the Royal Australian Navy to purchase several nuclear-powered submarines in an effort to modernize their fleet. Building a nuclear submarine program from scratch is anything but easy, so the MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering has created a course for the Australian Submarine Agency.
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Small, Cheap and Numerous: A Military Revolution Is Upon Us
Only the most hidebound will be ignoring the revolution in military affairs under way in Ukraine and the Red Sea. For want of a better name, call it the cheap-drone revolution. A big change in military affairs has long been predicted, one in which big, costly and scarce weapons would be challenged by things that would be small, cheap and numerous. In the Middle East and especially in Ukraine, the revolution is upon us.
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U.S. Lawmakers Push for Limits on American Investment in China Tech
U.S. lawmakers renewed calls Wednesday to pass bipartisan legislation that would restrict American investment in Chinese technology. A pending bill, H.R. 6349, would target specific technology sectors, like AI and quantum computing, which are empowering China’s military development and surveillance.
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More headlines
The long view
Tantalizing Method to Study Cyberdeterrence
Tantalus is unlike most war games because it is experimental instead of experiential — the immersive game differs by overlapping scientific rigor and quantitative assessment methods with the experimental sciences, and experimental war gaming provides insightful data for real-world cyberattacks.
Testing Cutting-Edge Counter-Drone Technology
Drones have many positive applications, bad actors can use them for nefarious purposes. Two recent field demonstrations brought government, academia, and industry together to evaluate innovative counter-unmanned aircraft systems.
European Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply
States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.
How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
“People talk about climate change as a threat multiplier,” said Karen Sudkamp, an associate director of the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program within the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. “But at what point do we need to start talking about the threat multiplier actually becoming a significant threat all its own?”
The Tech Apocalypse Panic is Driven by AI Boosters, Military Tacticians, and Movies
From popular films like a War Games or The Terminator to a U.S. State Department-commissioned report on the security risk of weaponized AI, there has been a tremendous amount of hand wringing and nervousness about how so-called artificial intelligence might end up destroying the world. There is one easy way to avoid a lot of this and prevent a self-inflicted doomsday: don’t give computers the capability to launch devastating weapons.