• U.S. Voluntary AI Code of Conduct and Implications for Military Use

    Seven technology companies including Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta, with major artificial intelligence (AI) products made voluntary commitments regarding the regulation of AI. These are non-binding, unenforceable and voluntary, but they may form the basis for a future Executive Order on AI, which will become critical given the increasing military use of AI.

  • Roles and Implications of AI in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a significant asset in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Specifically, it has become a key data analysis tool that helps operators and warfighters make sense of the growing volume and amount of information generated by numerous systems, weapons and soldiers in the field.

  • Proposed U.S. Missile Defense Plan a Source of White House, Congress Disagreement

    The $874 billion budget passed by the House on Friday calls for the military to maintain a “credible nuclear capability” to deter adversaries, while developing and deploying layered defense systems that can defeat complex missile threats “in all phases of flight.” The White House argues that this contradicts the balance-of-terror on which the nuclear relations of the great powers was based since the 1960s, and which is embedded in nuclear arms control treaties.

  • The Uncertain Future of the U.S. Military’s All-Volunteer Force

    This year marks the fiftieth anniversary of U.S. all-volunteer military force. It also coincides with one of the worst recruiting years for the U.S. military since 1973. The U.S military has a manpower problem and it’s not just due to today’s recruiting shortages. It’s time for a comprehensive plan to solve the personnel shortfalls.

  • Satellite Security Lags Decades Behind the State of the Art

    Thousands of satellites are currently orbiting the Earth, and there will be many more in the future. Researchers analyzed three current low-earth orbit satellites and found that, from a technical point of view, hardly any modern security concepts were implemented. Various security mechanisms that are standard in modern mobile phones and laptops were not to be found.

  • Preparing for Great Power Conflict

    How has the military experience gained by both the U.S. military and the PLA since 2001 shaped the way both militaries train? What effect do these experiences and training trends have on readiness for major power conflict?

  • What Are the Odds of a Truly Catastrophic, Even Extinction-Causing, Disaster?

    The Forecastong Research Institute (FRI) brought together forecasters from two groups with distinctive claims to knowledge about humanity’s future — experts in various domains relevant to existential risk, and “superforecasters” with a track record of predictive accuracy over short time horizons. FRI asked tournament participants to predict the likelihood of global risks related to nuclear weapon use, biorisks, and AI, along with dozens of other related, shorter-run forecasts.

  • China’s Ties to Cuba and Growing Presence in Latin America Raise Security Concerns in Washington, Even as Leaders Try to Ease Tensions

    There have been news reports that China made deals with Cuba to set up an electronic eavesdropping station on the island nation, just 90 miles from Florida and build a military training facility there. The China-Cuba connection is just one example of how the Chinese government and Chinese companies have been expanding their influence on America’s doorstep for decades. Not just through trade and investment, but also through espionage, military, law enforcement and drug activities. Such activities will greatly affect U.S. national security for years to come.

  • Our Biggest Errors in Afghanistan and What We Should Learn from Them

    However dramatic it appeared, the collapse of the Afghan government and military was not surprising. The seeds of defeat were planted long before President Joe Biden ordered the withdrawal. The American project was not based in a clear understanding of the realities of Afghanistan. Well-meaning Americans believed that they could persuade, cajole, or force a project that much of the population did not actively embrace or participate in. A chain of discrete policy errors flowed from this basic failure to adequately understand the country.

  • Global Conflicts: Death Toll at Highest in 21st Century

    Conflict deaths are higher than they have ever been this century with over 238,000 people killed in conflicts last year. The number of conflict deaths almost doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year. And war caused a 13% loss of global GDP, according to the Global Peace Index.

  • Why Norms Matter More Than Ever for Space Deterrence and Defense

    As the uses of space grow in significance, so too has the question of how to keep space systems safe and secure. Robin Dickey writes that one of the potential answers to that question is to fill in gaps in norms of responsible behavior for space. “What may seem like a relatively niche topic actually supports a broad swath of U.S. strategic objectives and has become a central line of effort in protecting national security interests in the space domain,” he writes.

  • Boosting Supply Chains by Recovering Valuable Materials from Water

    Promoting national security and economic competitiveness will require America’s researchers to find new ways to obtain the materials that we need for many technologies. Traditional mining is fraught with challenges, while water, from the oceans to geothermal brines, is an underexplored resource for providing various materials.

  • Research Agenda Prepares for the Future of Science and Technology

    DHS Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) works to prepare DHS for  the future of science and technology. The requires remaining aware (and ahead) of emerging science and technology threats along with harnessing the latest advancements in science and technology as cutting-edge solutions for homeland security operational challenges.

  • The Microchip Industry Would Implode if China Invaded Taiwan, and It Would Affect Everyone

    Taiwan plays a critical role in the conflict between the US and China over computer chips. Taiwan has a huge share of the global semiconductor industry, but is also the focus of tensions between Beijing and Washington over its political status. If China invaded Taiwan, the global semiconductor industry would freeze, inflation would spiral further upwards, the post-COVID recovery would be reversed, and many of the tools we rely on would disappear from our shops for years.

  • U.S. Former General: Russia Benefits from Dam Blast, Putin 'Likely' to Use Nuclear Weapons Rather Than Lose in Ukraine

    “I’m not the first to warn [Putin’s] threats [to use nuclear weapons] are serious. Many people say that his threats are serious, but then they quickly say, “However, they are not likely. I’m one of the few people who has said that these threats are not only serious but they’re likely to happen. That makes a threat urgent — something which others are not saying. If these threats are recognized as urgent, then the governments will do something about it; if they’re not urgent, or if they’re not likely, then the governments have many other things on their plate that they want to take care of that are urgent”: Brigadier General (Ret.) Kevin Ryan.