Universities, businesses offer solutions for dealing with hurricanes

In the quest more accurately to predict and prepare for hurricanes, some Florida universities are stepping up their game.

• Florida State University has developed a computer model that promises unprecedented accuracy in projecting how many storms will arise each season (see 16 July 2009 HSNW)
• The University of Miami plans to build a $48 million research complex to simulate how hurricane winds slash into coastal structures
• Florida International this fall plans to employ a powerful machine, capable of producing 130 mph winds, as part of its program to study wind damage

Tampa Bay Online’s Ken Kaye writes that, schools aside, perhaps the most ambitious project is being undertaken by a private firm in Bellevue, Washington. It wants to kill hurricanes. Backed by Bill Gates, Intellectual Ventures has proposed placing giant ocean-going tubs in the paths of storms. The tubs would work to push hot water from the surface to the bottom of the sea and pull cold water to the top.

All the research should strengthen the U.S. efforts to predict storms and protect residents, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County. “The ultimate benefit, of course, is to those living along the vulnerable coastline,” he said.

FSU’s computer model already has proved more accurate that most other models in terms of projecting the number of storms that form each season. For this year, it predicts six to ten named storms, including three to five hurricanes. This is slightly fewer than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast of nine to fourteen named storms, including four to seven hurricanes. It is also milder than the prediction of Colorado State University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach: eleven named storms, including five hurricanes.

With the hurricane season approaching its busiest stretch, from mid-August through October, the first named storm has yet to emerge. Tim LaRow, an FSU scientist, said he created the model because Florida is vulnerable and seasonal forecasts are often off the mark. “There’s always room for improvement,” he said.

In re-forecasting the 1986-2005 hurricane seasons, LaRow found the model outperformed most others. He concedes he does not know why but said it relies more heavily than others on forecasts and observed sea surface temperatures. “Sea surface temperatures are known to have a strong influence on hurricane activity in the Atlantic,” said LaRow, who hopes the model eventually will help NOAA improve its seasonal outlook.

UM recently received a $15 million federal grant, helping it to build a 51,000-square-foot research complex at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. The complex, slated to open in the fall of 2012, will house an 8,000-foot lab with a large tank and fans. The lab will simulate how hurricane winds rip into homes and buildings. That should result in stronger construction materials and more resilient structures, said Brian Haus, an associate professor of applied marine physics. It also should help improve computer forecast models, he said. “We measure very carefully the wind flow around the buildings,” he said. “You can then use that information for the computer models.”

Such research is critical in light of the buildup of the coastline. According to a federal study, hurricanes cause an average of $10 billion a year in coastal damage. In 2004 and 2005, when 10 hurricanes struck the U.S. coast, damage amounted to more than $150 billion.

FIU is focusing on wind damage. Three years ago, the center unveiled “The Wall of Wind,” an apparatus that simulated how Category 3 winds hit a home. It was driven by two fans.

This year, the school plans to use a machine with 12 electric fans that can generate winds up to 130 mph, or almost Category 4 strength, said Carolyn Robertson, the center’s assistant director. “It will be able to examine larger structures than what we’re currently doing,” she said.

Kaye writes that as for the giant tubs concept, experts doubt the system could weaken or kill hurricanes, even if Bill Gates is providing financial support.

Hugh Willoughby, a research professor at FIU, said that to work, “hundreds of thousands to millions” of the tubs would have to be placed throughout the cone of uncertainty. “Nobody stops to think how many of these things it would take,” he said.