ResilienceSt. Louis prepares for a warmer future

Researchers have recently presented findings in St. Louis, Missouri to raise awareness about local climate change, in the attempt to motivate local and state governments, as well as the citizenry, to take action.

As the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a three-part series, researchers are examining the climate patterns of St. Louis for evidence of warming and a look at projections that could save money and lives for the state.

“The last quarter-century has been the warmest quarter-century on record,” said John Posey, the director of research at the East-West Gateway Council of Governments. “There’s good evidence St. Louis is becoming warmer.”

Posey presented his findings and climate predictions to attendees at a May meeting of the National Adaptation Forum, which included hundreds of climate-change experts and analysts who gathered in St. Louis in May.

“The big conclusion here is that the summers in St. Louis are getting even more miserable,” he added.

Posey suggests that summers like the very-hot 2012 season will become the norm for St. Louis within the next forty years. Between 2041 to 2071, the region’s 30-year average temperature is estimated to rise between 4.7 to 4.9 degrees, according to his models.

Even under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are already significantly reduced, he adds, the region can expect temperatures roughly 3.6 degrees warmer within the next thirty years.

“I think we can speak with reasonable confidence of the direction of some of these changes,” he said following the conference in June, “I think we’re still trying to assess the magnitudes and costs.”

The heat warnings are also a concern for other researchers. Some environmental groups have warned of rises in tick populations — resulting in increased risk for Lyme disease in the state — due to the growing heat.

“The increase in these populations can be directly attributed to global warming,” said Brian Nauert, owner of a St. Louis- based pest control company.

Further, many homes in the area are also becoming damaged by the higher temperatures.

“[We’ve] been inundated with calls from homeowners trying to prevent settlement damage as dry, cracked earth receded from their houses. The clay soil in the St. Louis area is more prone to let houses settle,” said Tim Tucker, the owner of Perma Jack home repair in the city.

Because of these signs, the city is also planning for more drought, which will require further action now to prepare the infrastructure for the future.

“We know we’re going to get droughts,” said Ken Kunkel, a climate scientist with the National Centers for Environmental Information and North Carolina State University.