The Assad regime’s chemical-weapons kill chain
The attack on Khan Sheikhoun was significant not only for the high number of deaths but also for its use of a far deadlier type of chemical weapon. According to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the United States has “very high confidence” that sarin was used in the strike. Although this has not yet been independently confirmed, the victims’ symptoms and autopsies are consistent with poisoning by a nerve agent such as sarin.
If the chemical agent used in this attack was indeed sarin, it would either confirm suspicions that the Syrian regime did not destroy its entire chemical weapons stockpile as promised when it joined the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 2013 or that it has resumed production of these weapons in violation of the treaty. Either way, this latest attack vividly demonstrates that Syria, despite being a member of the CWC, maintains a well-organized capacity to conduct multiple types of chemical attacks in support of the regime’s tactical and strategic objectives.
While the U.S. cruise missile strike targeted one link in the Syrian chemical weapons kill chain, it did not break the chain. National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster recognized as much when he told reporters in the aftermath of the strike: “Obviously, the regime will retain a certain capacity to commit mass murder with chemical weapons beyond this airfield.”
Syria’s chemical weapons attacks are not the work of a mere handful of people — an entire political, military, and scientific apparatus is responsible for orchestrating them. As Samantha Power, Obama’s ambassador to the United Nations, put it, “While their names may be unfamiliar, their brutality is infamous, so they should be as well.”
Based on information released by the U.N., the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), nongovernmental organizations, and the U.S. and European governments, it is possible to construct a picture of the Syrian government’s entire chain of command involved in the research, production, weaponization, planning, and delivery of chemical weapons. The Syrian chain of command for chemical weapons is composed of four tiers: the senior leadership, which is responsible for authorizing the use of these weapons and providing strategic guidance on their employment; the chemists, who produce, transport, and prepare the chemical weapons for use; the coordinators, who provide intelligence on targets and integrate chemical weapons with conventional military operations; and the triggermen, who deliver the weapons to their targets. Together, these individuals and organizations form a chemical weapons kill chain that has so far claimed roughly 1,500 lives and caused more than 14,000 injuries.
Koblentz ends his article saying:
In the aftermath of the attack on Ghouta [in August 2013 – in which Assad forces used sarin gas to kill more than 1,400 men, women, and children], I co-wrote an article arguing: “[A]n effective effort to reduce the long-term risk of chemical weapons … must also include legal and economic steps to deter further chemical attacks, including by holding individual perpetrators accountable.” In 2017, as in 2013, the use of military force is just one part of a comprehensive strategy to enhance deterrence, bring justice to the victims of chemical attacks, and reinforce the norm against chemical weapons.
