ISIS control of people down 83% in Iraq, 56% in Syria from peak levels
RAND notes that the group’s global footprint consists of eight formal provinces outside of Iraq and Syria, more than a dozen informal provinces, and tens of thousands of inspired individuals across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and North America. The Islamic State’s strategy is pan-Islamic expansion across multiple continents.
“Fully eliminating the threat posed by the Islamic State will require continued American leadership for years to come,” said James Dobbins, one of the authors of the report, senior fellow and Distinguished Chair in Diplomacy and Security at RAND. “Unless local authorities can secure and administer territory liberated from Islamic State control, the group will reemerge. This means that state building must be an important component of any effort to permanently eradicate this threat.”
RAND researchers examine four possible strategies for dealing with IS: disengagement, containment, rollback “light” (with a reliance on local forces backed by U.S. special operations forces, CIA and other intelligence assets, and airpower) and rollback “heavy” (adding the employment of American conventional forces in ground combat).
The authors conclude that the U.S. should pursue a light rollback strategy. They suggest several steps to accelerate the anti-Islamic State campaign, including modestly reinforcing the American military presence in Syria, intensifying efforts to address political grievances that underlie local support for the group in Iraq and elsewhere, devolving authority to initiate strikes against Islamic State targets to field commanders, increasing U.S. military posture in Africa and tightening restrictions on the Islamic State’s internet access.
Key findings
The ultimate goal of the Islamic State’s strategy is to establish a pan-Islamic caliphate
— The Islamic State has no intention of containing itself within certain countries or regions but seeks to expand its power and influence.
— Numerous Salafi-jihadist groups across the world have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.
While the Islamic State has lost territory and support, it continues to pose a terrorist threat to the United States and its allies
— The Islamic State has lost considerable territory since 2014 in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria.
— Polling data indicate declining support across the Muslim world for the Islamic State and its ideology.
— The Islamic State continues to conduct and inspire attacks around the globe.
— The group’s global footprint includes eight formal provinces outside Iraq and Syria; over a dozen informal provinces; and tens of thousands of inspired individuals across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and North America.
The United States should pursue a light rollback strategy against the Islamic State
— The advocates of disengagement and containment argue that the Islamic State will eventually burn itself out. But the defeat of the Islamic State would be at best distant, and the group could still plot or inspire attacks.
— The employment of large numbers of American troops in ground combat would likely give rise to local resistance.
— Key components of a light rollback strategy include the use of American airpower, special operations forces, and intelligence units to enable local partners to liberate territory held by the Islamic State.
Recommendations
— Rebalance counterterrorism efforts toward governance, political, and economic steps.
— Loosen restrictions on U.S. military operations in conflict zones.
— Increase U.S. military posture in Africa.
— Tighten restrictions on Islamic State internet access.
— Adequately fund rollback operations.
— Read more in Seth G. Jones et al., Rolling Back the Islamic State (RAND, 2017)
