Climate threatsClimate change could cause global beer shortages

Published 19 October 2018

Severe climate events could cause shortages in the global beer supply, according to new research. The study warns that increasingly widespread and severe drought and heat may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide, affecting the supply used to make beer, and ultimately resulting in “dramatic” falls in beer consumption and rises in beer prices.

Severe climate events could cause shortages in the global beer supply, according to new research involving the University of East Anglia (UEA).

The study warns that increasingly widespread and severe drought and heat may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide, affecting the supply used to make beer, and ultimately resulting in “dramatic” falls in beer consumption and rises in beer prices.

Beer is the most popular alcoholic drink in the world by volume consumed. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in a range of future climate scenarios, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed.

UEA notes that in recent years, the beer sector has consumed around 17 percent of global barley production, but this share varies drastically across major beer-producing countries, for example from 83 percent in Brazil to 9 percent in Australia. Results from the new study reveal potential average yield losses ranging from 3 percent to 17 percent, depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer.

During the most severe climate events, the results indicate that global beer consumption would decline by 16 percent, or 29 billion liters - roughly equal to the total annual beer consumption in the United States - and that beer prices would on average double. Even in less severe extreme events, beer consumption drops by 4% and prices rise by 15 percent.

The findings, published in Nature Plants, suggest that total beer consumption decreases most under climate change in the countries that consumed the most beer by volume in recent years. For example, the volume consumed in China - today the largest consuming country - falls by more than any other country as the severity of extreme events increases, and by 4.34 billion liters in the most severe.