Climate & securityClimate Change Poses “High-to-Catastrophic” Security Threats to U.S. Security: Experts
A comprehensive report finds that plausible climate change trajectories pose “High-to-Catastrophic” threats to U.S. national security. An expert panel analyzed the globe through the lens of the U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands, and concluded that “Even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades. Higher levels of warming will pose catastrophic, and likely irreversible, global security risks over the course of the twenty-first century.”
In a comprehensive report released yesterday by the National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP)” of the Center for Climate and Security, experts warn of “High-to-Catastrophic” threats to security from plausible climate change trajectories – the avoidance of which will require “quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions.” The panel, made up of national security, military and intelligence experts, analyzed the globe through the lens of the U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands, and concluded that “Even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades. Higher levels of warming will pose catastrophic, and likely irreversible, global security risks over the course of the twenty-first century.”
NSMIP comprises fifteen former security leaders from across the U.S. government, as well as climate security experts, who have spent their careers assessing U.S. national and global security risks.
The report was officially released on Monday, 24 February, in a briefing at the Rayburn House Office Building. The briefing was hosted by the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR), in partnership with the Henry M. Jackson Foundation (HMJ), and the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI).
The Center says that the report, titled A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future, is a first of its kind, bringing together a panel of security professionals to analyze the security implications of two future warming scenarios (near term: 1-2°C and medium-long term: 2-4+°C). It identifies major threats, including heightened social and political instability, and risks to U.S. military missions and infrastructure, as well as security institutions, at both warming scenarios and across all regions of the world. Key findings and recommendations include:
Key Findings
1. A near-term scenario of climate change, in which the world warms 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F over pre-industrial levels by mid-century, would pose ‘High’ to ‘Very High’ security threats. A medium-to-long term scenario in which the world warms as high as 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2°F would pose a ‘Very High’ to ‘Catastrophic’ threat to global and national security. The world has already warmed to slightly below 1°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
2. At all levels of warming (1-4+°C/1.8-7.2+°F), climate change will pose significant and evolving threats to global security environments, infrastructure, and institutions.
