HurricanesThe USGS Prepares to Respond During the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Published 28 May 2020

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season starts1 June, and the U.S. Geological Survey says it is prepared to provide science that can help guide efforts to protect lives and property if a major storm makes landfall this season. USGS brings many capabilities to help communities deal with hurricanes: the ability to forecast coastal change; track storm surge, river and stream levels and flow; capture high-resolution ground elevation and topographic data; create detailed maps that can be used by disaster teams responding in the aftermath of storms; and measure coastal and inland flooding across entire regions.

Already there have been two tropical storms before the official start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from 1 June to 30 November. This year there is a 60 percent chance of an above average season and a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s 2020 hurricane season forecast. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher, and includes six hurricanes, three of which are major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher. This year the NOAA forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes with three to six of those being major hurricanes.

Tropical storms, hurricanes and other large coastal storms can impact seaside and inland communities and ecosystems with high winds, storm surge, erosion and flooding. These forces can destroy buildings, roads and bridges and reshape the nation’s coastline. 

USGS notes that when a major storm threatens to make landfall in the United States or its territories, the USGS provides comprehensive scientific capabilities and information that decision makers, emergency responders and communities can use to help them prepare, cope with and recover from a storm. This includes the USGS’s ability to forecast coastal change; track storm surge, river and stream levels and flow; capture high-resolution ground elevation and topographic data; create detailed maps that can be used by disaster teams responding in the aftermath of storms; and measure coastal and inland flooding across entire regions.

Forecasting Coastal Change as a Hurricane Approaches
Before a storm’s expected landfall, USGS coastal change experts forecast how a storm may reshape the coastline using a sophisticated system they developed called the coastal change hazard forecast model.

The model provides detailed forecasts of a strong storm’s likely effects on sandy shorelines along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It predicts where protective sand dunes are likely to be eroded at their bases or overtopped by storm waves and where coastal areas behind the dunes could be inundated by seawater.