Increasing Pace, Intensity of Climate Hazards to Compound Security Threats: Report
3. Militaries will be increasingly overstretched as climate change intensifies. As the pace and intensity of extreme weather events increases, countries are increasing their reliance on military forces as first responders. While direct climate change effects regularly threaten military infrastructure and threaten to reduce readiness, the most pressing security threats will come from climate change-induced disruptions to social systems.
4. Proposed climate security adaptation and resilience solutions that do not account for local dynamics or integrate perspectives from local communities risk inadvertently contributing to other security risks.
5. The global governance system is ill-equipped to deal with the security risks posed by climate change. In some cases international law is modeled on outdated understandings of climate change impacts and therefore mismatched to future challenges, while in other cases, international law or norms to manage certain climate security risks do not yet exist. 1 2 3 4 5 K
Key Opportunities: A Path Forward for Security Cooperation on Climate Change
1. The world must take advantage of the return of the United States to the international stage on climate issues. The Biden Administration’s stated commitment to climate change as a national security priority will present a range of opportunities for allies and partners to advance international cooperation on climate security issues, including at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change COP26.
2. Increased EU and NATO leadership on climate security issues can set an example for defense and security forces around the world. Given Europe’s bold decarbonization commitments, its security services are well placed to lead on climate security risks and resilience. The implementation of the EU Climate Change and Defense Road Map in 2021 is one opportunity for militaries in Europe to better integrate climate change into their planning, including the development of foresight tools and early warning systems.
3. Climate-proofing development for fragile or brittle states should be a priority for conflict prevention. Assistance should be aimed at climate resilience challenges such as water security, food security, and disaster preparedness, as well as ‘green recovery’ mechanisms that encourage investments in renewable energy and adaptive capacities.
4. The international community should embrace predictive modeling and climate risk assessment methodologies to better prepare for and prevent climate security risks. These types of assessments should be integrated into militaries’ regional security plans and force readiness assessments.
5. Security institutions around the globe should act as leading voices urging significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions, given recent warnings about the catastrophic security implications of climate change under plausible climate scenarios.
6. States and international actors must take urgent action to update and develop international law and mechanisms to include environmental and climate security impacts. In particular, multilateral negotiations to establish currently non-existent international mechanisms to govern climate intervention science, commonly referred to as “geoengineering,” should be pursued urgently in multilateral fora.
