WAR IN UKRAINEWhat, If Any, Are the Chances of Toppling Putin and Who Might Take Over?
There is a consensus among most of the Russian elite, including liberals (although it seems to be waning in recent times): there is no such thing as a truly post-Putin Russia. Putinism is so embedded in the country’s political, social and economic institutions and relationships that it’s almost impossible to imagine. A realistic prognosis of a post-Putin Russia and succession plan must take this into account.
Speculation regarding how secure Vladimir Putin’s position is surfaces every few years, but has intensified since the invasion of Ukraine, particularly in light of Russia’s military failures in recent months. Many of these speculative debates discuss either who will take the leadership position or what sort of regime – and led by who – will replace Putin at the top.
There’s a great deal of uncertainty about what a post-Putin Russia might look like. Projections range from violent destruction of the Russian state to the reestablishment of democratic norms and a system of substantive checks and balances – presumably under the “liberal” elite and technocracy.
There is a consensus among most of the Russian elite, including liberals (although it seems to be waning in recent times): there is no such thing as a truly post-Putin Russia. Putinism is so embedded in the country’s political, social and economic institutions and relationships that it’s almost impossible to imagine.
A realistic prognosis of a post-Putin Russia and succession plan must take this into account.
Putin most likely does not have a clear succession plan in place, other than the prescribed procedure which hands the presidency to the prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, and calls for elections in the event of a premature departure of the current president. In other words, a voluntary change of leadership is unlikely to take place. Even if there were plans in place before the war, these are now likely to have changed with circumstance.
If there is a succession plan at all, it would be enacted after the war and post-conflict settlement. This implies that the regime will try to prolong the conflict for as long as politically and economically possible given the uncertainties and widespread problems that Russian military failures have introduced into the system.
So any speculation on leadership or regime change must take this into account. Several scenarios are possible regarding the outcome of the war.
Scenario 1: Military Stalemate
In the fairly likely event of a stalemate and a return to frozen conflict in the east of Ukraine, the Kremlin would probably spin this as a Russian victory – even if there was a return to the pre-February lines, something which would be seen elsewhere as a failure. The state apparatus would blame the influx of western support as the major contributing factor, leaving room for regime elites to squabble among themselves.
