ARGUMENT: TACKLING DOMESTIC TERRORISMAn Assessment of the Second U.S. Government Domestic Terrorism Assessment

The recently released intelligence assessment of domestic terrorism is the second iteration of the Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Data on Domestic Terrorism. Seamus Hughes, Moshe Klein, and Alexis Jori Shanes write in Lawfare that the first one, while interesting, fell short in a number of ways and felt, in a sense, like an attempt to placate eager congressional overseers. This iteration, which was released with little fanfare or a typical departmental press release, is a significant improvement. “From additional granularity in the size and scope of the threat of domestic terrorism to a more forthcoming acknowledgement of its complexity, it should provide a road map for U.S. domestic counterterrorism efforts,” they write, adding:

By measures of law enforcement investigations, domestic terrorism is increasing. The FBI notched roughly 1,400 domestic terrorism investigations by the end of fiscal year 2020, up considerably from the 1,000 average during previous years. By the end of 2021, however, the number of investigations had nearly doubled to 2,700. The agency attributed “a significant portion” of the investigations to crimes related to Jan. 6, but even accounting for this anomaly, the numbers have risen significantly.

Most of the investigations were related to racially or ethnically driven violent extremism, anti-government or anti-authority violent extremism, and civil unrest. If those labels feel like catchalls, it is because they are. That is the nature of domestic terrorism investigations in America. Domestic terrorism, as defined by 18 U.S.C.§ 2331(5), is best described as anything but al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. As a result, ideologies categorized as domestic terrorism can range from the garden variety white supremacist to a hardened anarchist and everything in between. The broad buckets of ideologies are understandable, but at some point they become less valuable to congressional appropriators wondering how to allocate money. 

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The Jan. 6 arrests also drove the more than fourfold increase in domestic terrorism-related arrests between fiscal years 2020 and 2021. The FBI and its partner agencies arrested roughly 800 domestic terrorism subjects in 2021 alone, up from around 180 the previous year. By contrast, the agency arrested approximately 850 domestic terrorism subjects between fiscal years 2015 and 2019 combined. 

The FBI received more than 14,000 referrals of potential domestic violence incidents in the report’s two-year span: nearly 5,700 in fiscal year 2020, and 8,400 in fiscal year 2021. It passed off around 2,700 incidents to partner agencies.

During the same two years, the agency released roughly 6,000 domestic terrorism intelligence products, which can include everything from raw data to finished reports. That figure is also up, from 4,000 products in the five-year period covered in last year’s report. This represents a significant rise in intelligence analysis by the FBI, Homeland Security, and the NCTC. It speaks to both the increased focus on the topic of domestic terrorism and a hunger by state and local officials for more information. Indeed, by any good measure, the counterterrorism apparatus has experienced a “sea change” since Jan. 6. 

The authors note two worrisome developments:

in recent public remarks, senior FBI officials have raised alarms about the rising number of cases involving minors and the lack of useful legal tools available. In conversations with prosecutors and law enforcement around the country by the authors, officials increasingly raise concerns that they are stuck between a rock and hard place. They have minors as young as 11 who are steeped in white supremacy but have little moral appetite or legal ability to arrest them. Quietly, they have quickly put together haphazard intervention and diversion programs to try to dissuade these young—and usually male—individuals from their extremist beliefs. The status quo for law enforcement on this issue is not tenable in the long run. 

Although extremism motivated by abortion-rights beliefs has not been a significant threat in the past, especially compared to anti-abortion-related extremism, the report notes that following the Dobbs decision, there is an increased threat to anti-abortion organizations and individuals.

The authors conclude:

For all its shortcomings, this year’s assessment provided a window into the rising domestic terrorism threat in America and represented an important improvement from the previous iteration. This is all to say, sometimes congressionally mandated reports are actually worth reading.