EXTREMISMFar-Right Populism is Resurgent in Germany

The far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won two local elections in breakthrough victories in recent weeks, marking the first time the party has captured either a prominent regional or mayoral post. In an intelbrief, the Soufan Center notes that although both posts may not hold significant national political weight – one being a district administrator seat comparable to the mayorship of a mid-sized town, the other a mayoral post in a small town – the victories have resonated throughout the country and are indicative of the party’s resurgent strength in Germany. They are also important symbolically. While AfD currently holds 78 seats in the Bundestag, it had not previously claimed either the majority of a district’s electoral support or bureaucratic authority over an area. Both of these recent wins reflect broader national trends: several recent polls project that if elections were held in Germany today, AfD would claim 20 percent of the vote, equal to that of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party. This level of support marks a distinct shift for the AfD, reflecting the broadening of its voter base beyond its political center of gravity. Further, AfD’s strengthening popularity not only seemingly counters pre-mature prognostications that far-right populists in the West may be on the back foot, but also reflects the increasing resonance of its messaging to the electorate.

The far-right, anti-immigrant AfD party catapulted to prominence when it became the official opposition and third-largest party in the German government in 2017, just four years after the party’s founding. Its sudden national prominence, coupled with its anti-refugee and anti-Islam rhetoric and policies, occurred concurrently with an influx of refugees to Europe, mostly from Syria, as well as a surge in support for far-right populist parties more broadly across Europe. AfD lost its position as Germany’s main opposition party in the 2021 parliamentary elections, leading some analysts to suggest that it had exhausted its chances of further mainstreaming its messaging and expanding beyond its strongholds in eastern Germany. Yet the July 1 victory of AfD’s Hannes Loth in the city of Raguhn-Jessnitz and the June 25 victory of Robert Sesselman in the district of Sonneberg, combined with national polling trends, suggest otherwise.