ASIA WATCHThailand’s Emerging New Political Alignment
The big surprise of Thailand’s 14 May general election was the performance of the Move Forward Party, which seemed to be a rebuke of nine years of political dominance by the monarchy and military-backed government.
Move Forward has a radical, progressive agenda that aims to reduce the influence of the monarchy and military in Thai politics and to begin dismantling the monopolies that distort Thailand’s economy. It emerged with the largest number of seats, 151, out of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives, and with 38 per cent of the vote.
A provisional coalition of other progressive parties — including Pheu Thai, the party of exiled billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra — agreed to put forward the leader of Move Forward, Harvard graduate Pita Limjaroenrat, as prime minister.
Two months later, a sense of realism has set in. Move Forward was unable to place one of their MPs into the key role of speaker of the lower house of parliament. On 13 July, Pita failed to gain the backing of a majority in the combined House of Representatives and Senate to become prime minister. The main obstacle was the military-appointed Senate, most of whom declined to support Pita. On 19 July, the conservative-controlled Constitutional Court suspended Pita as an MP due to claims he violated electoral rules by holding shares in a media company.
At this stage it seems clear that Thailand’s conservative establishment has refused to allow Pita to become Thailand’s next prime minister.
Given conservative fears of a Move Forward government, it is also unlikely that the party will be allowed to be part of a coalition government.
Instead, it is Pheu Thai, which ran a respectable second place in the May election with 141 seats, which now appears to be taking the lead in forming an alternative, conservative coalition.
Even before the election there were rumours that the conservative parties had been negotiating with Pheu Thai with the prospect of forming a coalition. One report circulating in Thai social media even claimed that Thaksin had met with a close aide to King Vajiralongkorn, former army commander, General Apirat Kongsompong, on the Malaysian island of Langkawi in April. In its election campaign, Pheu Thai was careful not to antagonise the monarchy, by refusing to support calls to reform the draconian lèse majesté law, which forbids criticism of the monarchy.
