AFRICA WATCHHow Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention in Niger Unfold?
West Africa’s defense chiefs were wrapping up a meeting in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Thursday where they discussed the possibility of a military intervention if diplomatic efforts fail to reinstate Niger’s ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum. How likely is West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS to use force to restore Niger’s democracy and what are its chances of success?
West Africa’s defense chiefs were wrapping up a meeting in Nigeria’s capital Abuja on Thursday where they discussed the possibility of a military intervention if diplomatic efforts fail to reinstate Niger’s ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum.
The Economic Community of West African States, the regional bloc known as ECOWAS, threatened the use of force if coup leaders don’t restore Bazoum to power by Sunday.
How Likely Is ECOWAS to Send Troops into Niger?
“The likelihood of a major intervention is very, very high,” said geopolitical analyst Ovigwe Eguegu, “because there are so many factors that speak for it.”
The United States would support it, Eguegu said, because Niger is a critical Sahel partner in the fight against jihadist insurgency.
In addition, new instability in Niger would allow Russia to exert even more influence in a region where a succession of coups have seen military-led governments turn their backs on the West and embrace the Kremlin.
ECOWAS has struggled to contain a democratic backslide in West Africa and had vowed that coups will no longer be tolerated after military takeovers in member states Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea in the last two years.
Mali-based security expert Fahiraman Kone believes military intervention is a “possibility” especially given the desire of Nigeria’s new president, Bola Tinubu, to reclaim Nigeria’s position as a regional leader.
Tinubu, who was elected ECOWAS chair less than a month ago, “wants to reaffirm Nigeria’s leadership [and its] military, financial and diplomatic strength in the region,” said Kone, Sahel Project Manager at the Institute for Security Studies, an African think tank.
Speaking on Sunday at an emergency ECOWAS meeting, Tinubu said: “We will stand with our people in freedom and our commitment to the rule of law and not the barrel of gun. Africa has come of age.”
Has ECOWAS Acted on Its Threats Before?
The 15-member bloc has made similar threats before and carried through on them. Most recently, ECOWAS sent troops in 2017 into The Gambia when long-term ruler Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing elections.
After around 7,000 members of an ECOWAS-backed multinational force, led by Senegal, massed at the border to The Gambia, Jammeh quickly agreed to a deal to step down and go into exile.
Some 2,500 troops made up of forces from Senegal, Ghana, Mali, Togo and Nigeria are still involved in peace-support operations in the country.
