HAMAS ATTACKIsrael’s War on Hamas: What to Know
Israel will seek to eliminate the threat posed by the Palestinian militant group for good, but its campaign in Gaza could draw in other adversaries, including Hezbollah and al-Qaeda.
How Sophisticated Was Hamas’s Attack on Israel?
It is completely unprecedented that a terrorist organization would have the capacity or the wherewithal to mount coordinated, simultaneous assaults from the air, sea, and land. In addition, Hamas possessing the ability to keep its preparations unknown from a country like Israel that has among the most sophisticated intelligence services in the world strongly suggests that it had external state support, advice, and guidance in the planning and execution of the attack on Israel. Iran, accordingly, will be strongly suspected of being behind this.
Iran already provides both Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) with at least $100 million dollars a year, and it openly proclaims its intention to destroy Israel. Further, in recent months, Tehran was clearly growing concerned over the potential for Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish formal diplomatic relations, and even more so of a Saudi-U.S. defense pact. So Iran had every reason to encourage and facilitate the attack on Israel. However, that is very different from actually ordering, much less orchestrating the assaults or giving any form of “green light.” While Hamas and PIJ—like the Lebanon-based Hezbollah—have close ties with Iran, they also function independently. That said, Iran’s long track record of seeking to destabilize countries across the region, including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, is also very well documented.
What Type of Military Operation Is Israel Likely to Undertake?
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised, it will be both massive and will seek to be decisive, with the intention of permanently destroying Hamas. Until this war’s wanton execution of civilians, rape of Jewish women, and dragging of women, children, the elderly, and infirm into captivity, there could have been at least the same modicum of restraint and “playing by the rules” as in past fighting between Israel and Hamas, such as during Operation Cast Lead in 2008 and the Gaza Wars of 2014 and 2021. The objective in each of those was to degrade Hamas’s military capabilities, eliminate as many of its political and military leaders as was reasonably attainable, and buy time in terms of warding off future fighting by weakening the organization and diminishing its weapons stockpiles, especially missiles.
