CHINA WATCHU.S.: China's Nuclear Arsenal Exceeding Predictions

By Jeff Seldin

China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than expected, according to the latest unclassified Pentagon assessment, with a senior U.S. defense official warning the Chinese military is “on track to exceed previous projections.”

The U.S. Defense Department’s annual China Military Power Report, released Thursday, estimates the Chinese military had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads in its arsenal as of May and will have more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.

Last year’s report, issued in late November, estimated China had more than 400 warheads and was likely to have about 1,500 warheads in its nuclear stockpile by 2035.

U.S. officials said the new estimates are in line with their previous assessments while adding it is concerning that Beijing appears to have quickened the development of its nuclear arsenal.

“They’re expanding and investing in their land-, sea- and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this major expansion of their nuclear forces,” said a senior U.S. defense official who briefed reporters on the contents of the report on the condition of anonymity, under ground rules set by the Pentagon.

“We’re not trying to suggest a very large departure from where they looked to be headed in last year’s report, but we are suggesting that they’re on track to exceed those previous projections,” the official said.

“Certainly, it raises questions about what is their long-term intent here, and I think it reinforces the importance of pursuing some practical measures to try to reduce nuclear risks,” the official said.

U.S.vs China’s Nuclear Infrastructure
The United States, by treaty, maintains 1,550 active warheads, but it is an aging arsenal with an aging infrastructure. Some of the U.S. warheads are 50 years old.

To keep up, the Pentagon plans to spend $750 billion over the next decade to update and replace almost every component of the U.S. arsenal.

China’s infrastructure, in contrast, is new and expanding.

The Pentagon report assesses China is expanding the number of its nuclear delivery platforms — to be able to launch nuclear warheads from land, sea and air — while also building more infrastructure to “support further expansion of its nuclear forces.”

In addition, the U.S. believes China has completed construction of its intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields, which contain at least 300 silos from which it could launch warheads. The U.S. further assesses that some of the silos have been loaded with missiles.