MILITARY-TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTIONSmall, Cheap and Numerous: A Military Revolution Is Upon Us
Only the most hidebound will be ignoring the revolution in military affairs under way in Ukraine and the Red Sea. For want of a better name, call it the cheap-drone revolution. A big change in military affairs has long been predicted, one in which big, costly and scarce weapons would be challenged by things that would be small, cheap and numerous. In the Middle East and especially in Ukraine, the revolution is upon us.
Armed forces usually adapt slowly in peacetime, resisting change. Well, only the most hidebound will be ignoring the revolution in military affairs under way in Ukraine and the Red Sea.
For want of a better name, call it the cheap-drone revolution.
Just one example highlights how it’s changing things. Formerly a guided missile would hardly be used to kill a single enemy soldier. The missile would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, so it would be in limited supply and reserved for a much more important target, typically an armored vehicle.
Now in Ukraine a guided missile may indeed be aimed at just one soldier. We’d recognize the weapon as a drone, but functionally it’s a guided weapon with a revolutionary characteristic: by military standards, it’s incredibly cheap.
That cheapness is upending warfare. A big change in military affairs has long been predicted, one in which big, costly and scarce weapons would be challenged by things that would be small, cheap and numerous. In the Middle East and especially in Ukraine, the revolution is upon us.
What’s missing so far is another predicted characteristic in little weapons and sensors of the future: high autonomy. For that, just wait.
Drones that aren’t expended as missiles are cheap, too. In Ukraine they’re doing the work of crewed aircraft costing 10 or even 10,000 times as much and doing it without risking the lives of anyone aboard.
So these miniature missiles and tiny attack and reconnaissance aircraft are suddenly abundant in warfare. Some are small airplanes; others are little helicopters with four or more rotors for lift. In a wide variety of sizes, they’re swarming over the battlefield in Ukraine, multiplying the risks faced by valuable targets such as armored vehicles, trucks, command posts, artillery, air-defense batteries and ammunition depots.
Because they’re cheap and easy to use, little drones are weapons for terrorists, too.
This is a massive new challenge for armed forces, especially for armies and navies. We don’t have much insight into what, if anything, the Australian Defense Force and Department of Defense are doing about it.
Companies around the world, including Electro Optic Systems in Canberra, are rushing to come up with better ways of shooting down drones. The great problem is that the traditional methods of destroying aircraft cost more than many of the drones do. So these firms, among which EOS is a leader, are focusing on weapons that can hit at extremely low cost.
