Making Sense of Italy’s Staggering COVID-19 Death Toll

More than 12,400 people have died with the coronavirus since the pandemic started gutting this country last month, making Italy’s mortality rate around 10.2 percent in comparison with 4.2 percent or less elsewhere, based on World Health Organization figures.
What is the explanation for Italy’s staggering mortality rate? Barbie Latza Nadeau writes in the Daily Beast that there are two explanations:
First, Italy’s more than 105,000 cases of coronavirus infection merely scratch the surface. The real figure, says Massimo Galli, who heads the infectious disease unit at Sacco Hospital in Milan,  is “much, much more,” and if the true number of infections were known the percentage death rate would be more in line with other countries.
The second reason Italy’s mortality rate seems so high is the result of how Italians count their dead. Italy counts anyone who died with the coronavirus as a COVID-19 death. “Only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” a high official in the Italian health Ministry said last week, meaning their true cause of death was a result of their underlying condition and pneumonia caused by the virus simply sent them over the edge.

Coronavirus: As a Health Economist, I’m Not Convinced the Case for Mass Testing Stacks Up

Health economists think in terms of benefits from a course of action: lives saved, years of life saved and something we call quality-adjusted life years saved or QALYs. Yet in the present crisis, the data to make such calculations is likely to come too late. In a situation with (perceived) high risks and an immediate impact, there is a “rule of rescue” that says you decide now, still using rational reasoning, and worry about the QALYs later. So here’s my perspective as a health economist about the best way forward.

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The Data Speak: Stronger Pandemic Response Yields Better Economic Recovery

With much of the U.S. in shutdown mode to limit the spread of the COVID-19 disease, a debate has sprung up about when the country might “reopen” commerce, to limit economic fallout from the pandemic. But as a new study co-authored by an MIT economist shows, taking care of public health first is precisely what generates a stronger economic rebound later. His study of the 1918 flu pandemic shows U.S. cities which responded more aggressively in health terms also had better economic rebounds.

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Threats to Democracy Spread with the Virus, We Must Keep Both in Check

As the coronavirus pandemic has spread, governments have responded predictably to the threat by agitating for increased authority. Melissa Hooper writes that the worst of these, the Hungarian proposal, was easily enacted into law on Tuesday, “setting a terrible precedent for other countries, in the West and around the world.” She adds: “Under the legislation, Hungary’s parliament will be disempowered in favor of rule by executive decree. The parliament now loses the ability to check the power of Viktor Orbán and his executive branch. Since the Fidesz government has hamstrung its court system, already limiting judicial oversight, this would remove the last obstacle to a dictatorial government. This is especially true since expanded executive power will be granted indefinitely: The bill has no sunset clause.”

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Antibodies in the Blood of COVID-19 Survivors Know How to Beat Coronavirus – and Researchers Are Already Testing New Treatments that Harness Them

Amid the chaos of an epidemic, those who survive a disease like COVID-19 carry within their bodies the secrets of an effective immune response. “Virologists like me look to survivors for molecular clues that can provide a blueprint for the design of future treatments or even a vaccine,” Ann Sheehy writes in The Conversationt.
Researchers are launching trials now that involve the transfusion of blood components from people who have recovered from COVID-19 to those who are sick or at high risk. Called “convalescent-plasma therapy,” this technique can work even without doctors knowing exactly what component of the blood may be beneficial.
The extraordinary power of this passive immunization has traditionally been challenging to harness, primarily due to the difficulty of obtaining significant amounts of plasma from survivors. “Fast forward to the 21st century, and the passive immunization picture changes considerably, thanks to steady advances in molecular medicine and new technologies that allow scientists to quickly characterize and scale up the production of the protective molecules,” she writes.

COVID-19: One in Five over-80s Need Hospitalization and Death Rate 0.66 Percent

This is one of the conclusions of an analysis of 3,665 cases in mainland China, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Laura Gallagher writes for Imperial College London that it also estimates that the overall death rate, including unconfirmed cases, is 0.66%. The estimated proportion of deaths from both diagnosed cases and from milder, unconfirmed cases is strongly influenced by age. The estimates are slightly lower than others that have been made for the virus, but are still much higher than for previous pandemics such as 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1, which was estimated to be fatal in around 0.02% of cases. The new estimates are based on an analysis of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, combined with 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights.

Pluristem Begins Dosing with Covid-19 Therapy in Israel

Pluristem Therapeutics has started dosing Covid-19 patients in Israel with PLX cells under a compassionate use programme approved by the country’s health ministry.
Dosing was performed in three patients at two hospitals. Pluristem intends to recruit more coronavirus patients in the coming days.
Clinical Trials reports that PLX cells are off-the-shelf allogeneic mesenchymal-like cells with immunomodulatory properties that could trigger the immune system’s natural regulatory T-cells and M2 macrophages.
This mechanism is expected to block the overactivation of the immune system, which leads to complications.
It is hoped that the approach will potentially decrease the incidence and\or severity of pneumonia and pneumonitis associated with Covid-19 infection.