• An Analytic Framework for Assessing Risks of U.S. Post-Election Violence

    Today and the days ahead are the most consequential period for the United States in at least a generation. Kyle Murphy writes that when he served as a senior analyst for the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, heI developed frameworks to evaluate the risk of election-related instability overseas. “As a National Security Council staff member at the White House, I relied on similar tools to help prepare for and organize U.S. government support for nine elections in West Africa.” He applied these tools to this year’s U.S. presidential election.

  • Easing Election-Related Tensions: Lessons for the U.S. from Elections Abroad

    Public officials and the news media have broken through the public consciousness with the message that the results of the election may not be known on the night of 3 November, potentially helping to ease tensions in the immediate aftermath. Rose Jackson writes that there has not, however, been sufficient messaging about what the voting and counting period will look like specifically in each state. “This lack of groundwork creates a dangerous potential for misunderstanding and malfeasance — and by extension, for dangerous disinformation.”

  • Preparing for Election Night: Counting and Reporting the Vote in Battleground States

    Disinformation surrounding election night reporting of vote counts poses a unique threat to public confidence in U.S. election results. Jack Caleb and colleagues note that election night reporting (ENR) refers to the real-time report of unofficial results that election officials share with the public after polls close. “This year, ENR may continue several days past Election Day due to the increased use of vote-by-mail and differing timelines among states for when mail-in ballots can be counted,” they write.

  • U.S. to Consider Overhauling Asylum System

    In an interview with the Associated Press last week, Stephen Miller, the architect of the Trump administration’s immigration policy, said that if Donald Trump wins a second term, the administration  would use agreements with Central American governments — the “Asylum Cooperative Agreements” — as models to get countries around the world, possibly in Africa and Asia, to field asylum claims from people seeking refuge in the United States. The two principles undergirding the projected asylum policy — the First Country of Asylum principle the Safe Third Country principle – form the basis for the Dublin Regulation which governs EU asylum policy.

  • Reforming Fossil Fuel Subsidies

    Fossil fuels still receive most of the international government support provided to the energy sector despite their “well-known environmental and public health damage,” according to new research. “There is evidence that fossil fuel subsidies are socially inequitable, that they encourage smuggling and waste, and distort economies in ways that undermine economic efficiency while harming the environment and the climate,” says the report’s author.

  • Proposed Student Visa Policy Could Hinder U.S. Competitiveness

    In an effort to crack down on international students and scholars who overstay their visas, the administration is seeking to implement a new set of rules that would make it more difficult for them to remain in the U.S. One of the rules requires foreign students to leave the United States after two or four years, regardless of whether they have completed they degree or research work. The rule comes with a steep price tag. It would also undermine America’s interest in attracting talent from abroad and, ironically, it would do little to actually curtail the problem of visa overstays that it purports to solve.

  • The Case That Could Topple the Gun Industry’s Special Legal Protections

    An opinion handed down in a Pennsylvania appeals court threatens a law that gunmakers have long used as a shield against wrongful-death suits. The court’s opinion quashes an attempt by the Illinois-based gun manufacturer Springfield Armory to dismiss a suit brought by the family of a Pennsylvania teenager killed with one of its guns.

  • War, Terrorism, and Catastrophe in Cyber Insurance: Understanding and Reforming Exclusions

    Insurance is one of the most promising tools for addressing pervasive cyber insecurity. A robust market for insuring cyber incidents could, among other things, financially incentivize organizations to adopt better cyber hygiene—thereby reducing cyber risk for society as a whole. But cyber insurance, however, is not yet mature enough to fulfill its potential, Jon Bateman writes, and endless lawsuits hamper its effectiveness. Reforms and new solutions are sorely needed.

  • In Europe, Local Leaders Increasingly Frustrated with Pandemic Restrictions

    Across Europe, mayors are also questioning the orthodoxy of lockdowns, arguing that infection rates are trending up even in locked-down towns. They are not going as far as to ignore government instructions, but they are becoming increasingly frustrated with the pandemic restrictions central governments are imposing from on high. Local leaders say they are better placed to know when and how to tighten restrictions, or whether they are needed at all. They fear central governments are not getting the balance right between protecting lives and saving livelihoods and businesses.

  • Election Manipulation Threatens Democracy, but There Are New tools to Combat Disinformation

    The spread of false narratives about the election through social media poses a serious threat to American democracy. The Observatory on Social Media at Indiana University has a collection of tools and studies that aid in the fight against election manipulation and disinformation.

  • Emmanuel Macron's Plans to Protect French Values Anger Muslims

    Upcoming legislation crafted to “protect” the Republic and French values promises to be deeply divisive, with French Muslims fearing it will unfairly single them out. Some also see political calculus behind the effort.

  • Muslims, Atheists More Likely to Face Religious Discrimination in U.S.

    Muslims and atheists in the United States are more likely than those of Christian faiths to experience religious discrimination, according to new research. In the study, which focused on public schools because they are government-run, community-facing institutions, the researchers tested responses to an individual’s expression of religious belief. In addition to finding greater bias against religious minorities, the researchers also saw that ardent expressions of faith, regardless of religious tradition, were more prone to discrimination.

  • Age Restrictions for Handguns Make Little Difference in Homicides in U.S.

    In the United States, individual state laws barring 18- to 20-year-olds from buying or possessing a handgun make little difference in the rate of homicides involving a gun by people in that age group, a new study has found.

  • Macron to Outline France's Controversial Anti-Separatism Bill

    Five years after the Paris terrorist strikes and a week after a brutal knife attack in the French capital, French President Emmanuel Macron sketches the broad outlines Friday of upcoming legislation targeting groups considered hostile to the French Republic and its values — with radical Islam, including its political dimension, at the forefront.

  • Election Violence in November? Here’s What the Research Says

    As the U.S. presidential election draws near, many have expressed concern that violent clashes will follow the 3 November election. Some envision President Donald Trump’s supporters using misinformation to mobilize vigilante militias to clash with leftist protesters. Others envision that groups on the left will refuse to accept the results and mobilize, leading to violence and deaths across the country. What does the research say about the likelihood of election-related violence in November? The answer: The United States is not likely to experience post-election violence because, thankfully, the conditions which allow violence to erupt in other countries do not exist in the United States.