• ARGUMENT: SEEDS OF SURPRISE

    There were several reasons for Israel’s intelligence and operational failures on 7 October. But the context within which these failures occurred, what Ariel Levite calls “the intelligence-policy nexus,” was created by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For over a decade, he helped strengthen Hamas as part of his effort to prevent the emergence of a moderate and pragmatic Palestinian leadership. And, throughout 2023, he caused deep and bitter divisions in Israeli society and military by pursuing a regime-change legislative agenda aiming to hollow out Israel’s democracy. He was repeatedly warned by Israel’s military and intelligence leaders that both policies were weakening Israel and the IDF and making Israel more vulnerable to attack, but he rejected these warnings.

  • THE IRAN CHALLENGE

    Iran’s so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor. The network is a key element of Tehran’s strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

  • ARGUMENT: JIHADIST TERRORISM THREAT

    The Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, and the Israeli response have had dangerous echoes around the world. Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and unaffiliated terrorists have seized on the attacks in their propaganda and to conduct, or attempt to conduct, attacks.

  • ARGUMENT: HAMAS (RE)-FILLS GAZA VACUUM

    Israel’s lack of coherence with regard to the future administrative governing of the Gaza Strip, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to articulate a “day after” vision for Gaza – he is worried that the far-right elements in his coalition would bolt if he allowed the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza – have resulted in Hamas’s assuming, again, the role of governing Gaza. Rob Geist Pinfold writes that in the absence of any clear political vision for capitalizing on its military successes, Israel is allowing Hamas, which is the only party that is willing and able to provide these essential services, to assume many of its pre-7 October responsibilities.

  • EXTREMISM

    The U.S. imposes sanctions on individuals, groups, and countries deemed to be a threat to national security. Elon Musk’s X appears to be selling premium service to some of them. An investigation identified more than a dozen X accounts for U.S.-sanctioned entities that had a blue checkmark, which requires the purchase of a premium subscription. Along with the checkmarks, which are intended to confer legitimacy, X promises a variety of perks for premium accounts, including the ability to post longer text and videos and greater visibility for some posts.

  • MIGRANTS & TERRORISM

    The headlines are attention-grabbing, but reality is more mundane: Most people on the terror watchlist are not terrorists. The terror watchlist contains known terrorists, but also people who engaged in conduct related to terrorism, such as fund raising. Individuals on the watchlist who crossed the border illegally have never committed an attack domestically, let alone killed or injured anyone in such an attack. We should be concerned about people on the terrorist watchlist, but we should not immediately assume that they are terrorists planning a domestic attack.

  • BIORISKS

    Why is attribution of BW use important? During a biological incident, including BW use, what evidence might provide valuable information to facilitate attribution? What is the state of the science for determining the origin of a biological incident, including BW use? What capabilities does DoD possess or could it develop to facilitate attribution of BW use?

  • ONLINE TERROR CONTENT

    This vast ocean of online material needs to be constantly monitored for harmful or illegal content, like promoting terrorism and violence. The sheer volume of content means that it’s not possible for people to inspect and check all of it manually, which is why automated tools, including artificial intelligence (AI), are essential. But such tools also have their limitations.

  • MIDDLE EAST

    Iran’s “forward defense” strategy – focused on addressing threats externally before they become ones within its borders – would suggest that Iran will continue to support proxies through weaponry, funding and tactical knowledge to reduce the influence and legitimacy of the U.S. and its allies in the region. This underscores the delicate balance required in responding to Iranian-backed aggression – aiming to safeguard U.S. interests while preventing an escalation into a wider regional confrontation.

  • EXTREMISM

    Germany is considering banning Austria’s far-right extremist Martin Sellner from entering the country. Such a move is not unprecedented, but the legal hurdles in the EU are high.

  • EXTREMISM

    Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been playing down its involvement in a meeting of far-right extremists but a new investigative report claims yet another man with close ties to party boss Alice Weidel was in attendance.

  • TERRORISM

    For Germany, the reemergence of more violence orientated left-wing extremist actors has diversified the threat posed by non-state actors even further. Violent left-wing extremism is also of growing concern across Europe. While left-wing violent extremism does not currently represent as acute a threat as currently manifested by jihadist and right-wing terrorist attacks, the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.

  • SUPPLY-CHAIN SECURITY

    Due to Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea, worldwide shipping is in trouble and the global supply chain faltering. These technologies can help.

  • SUPPLY-CHAIN SECURITY

    While the Huthis are using an arsenal of Iranian weapons to wreak havoc in the Red Sea and are considered part of Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” the Yemen-based rebel group does not necessarily follow Iran’s commands.

  • TERRORISM

    The FBI credits its Terror Watchlist with keeping the country safe, but critics point to the experience of thousands of innocent American Muslims who were swept up by a screening system, and then found themselves trapped in a Kafkaesque nightmare as they tried to clear their names. The watchlist currently contains nearly two million names, of which about 15,000 are U.S. citizens and permanent residents.

  • GAZA WAR

    Planning for the ‘Day After’: After three months of this war Israel has weakened Hamas but not eliminated it, and cannot promise that elimination can be achieved quickly, if at all. The Israeli government is close to breaking point and perhaps only if it breaks will there be an opportunity for a serious consideration of options for addressing the Palestinian issue. There are, however, reasons why this issue has proved to be intractable in the past.

  • MARITIME SECURITY

    Houthi attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea have upended global shipping. The disruptions could soon ripple through the global economy.

  • ARGUMENT: TERRORISM THREAT TO THE U.S. in 2024

    We enter the new year with “blinking lights everywhere,” Austin Doctor writes. “From a U.S. homeland security perspective, the terrorism threat in 2023 can be summarized as diverse, diffuse, and active. In 2024, we are likely to continue to see signs of continuing shifts in the terrorism landscape—such as the threats posed by lone juvenile offenders, the malign use of democratized technologies, and ‘violent resistance’ narratives adopted across the extremist ecosystem.”

  • ARGUMENT: DOMESTIC TERRORISTS PREFER GUNS

    There used to be a time that domestic terrorists favored bombing as their preferred method. “Today, however, the terrorists’ preferred tactic is the mass shooting,” Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write. “Assault-style rifles have replaced explosives.”

  • DEMOCRACY WATCH

    The shocking events of Jan. 6, 2021 were an example of a new phenomenon: influential figures inciting large-scale political violence via social media, and insurgents communicating across multiple platforms to command and coordinate mobilized social movements in the moment of action. We call this phenomenon “networked incitement.” The use of social media for networked incitement foreshadows a dark future for democracies. Rulers could well come to power by manipulating mass social movements via social media, directing a movement’s members to serve as the leaders’ shock troops, online and off.