-
TERRORISMOn the Horizon: The Future of the Jihadi Movement
Factors of continuity, such as anti-regime grievances, the appeal of religious ideology, and the ability to hurt, are likely to maintain jihadism as a viable resistance ideology. Jihadism is still a powerful force and is making inroads in various regions, and a more modest jihadi strategy with a regional focus is offering jihadis a new path forward, but also suggests that a sustainable jihadi success would require moderation that is simply antithetical to the nature of the ideology.
-
-
DISINFORMATIONX's Crowdsourced Tool to Counter COVID Untruths mainly accurate, credible: Researchers
Community Notes, a crowdsourced COVID-19 vaccine misinformation countermeasure on X (formerly Twitter), generally corrected false posts accurately and pointed readers to more credible sources, according to researchers who evaluated the posts.
-
-
CYBERSECURITYComputer Scientists Unveil Novel Attacks on Cybersecurity
Researchers have found two novel types of attacks that target the conditional branch predictor found in high-end Intel processors, which could be exploited to compromise billions of processors currently in use. Intel and AMD issued security alerts based on the findings.
-
-
GRID SECURITYNew Cybersecurity Center to Protect Grids Integrated with Renewables, Microgrids
Bringing renewable energy to the power grid raises all kinds of “internet-of-things” issues because “everything is connected,” says an expert. Solar inverters are connected to the internet. Wind farm controllers are connected to the internet. And with each internet connection, energy resources distributed across the countryside are potentially vulnerable to cyberattacks.
-
-
GRID SECURITYFirst Regional Cybersecurity Center to Protect the Nation’s Electricity Grid
U.S. Department of Energy awards $10 million grant to develop innovative solutions to mitigating cyber threats across the U.S. A new center will bring together experts from the private sector, academia and government to share information and generate innovative real-world solutions to protect the nation’s power grid and other key sectors.
-
-
WATER SECURITYFor the Colorado River and Beyond, a New Market Could Save the Day
The Colorado River, “the lifeblood of the West,” is in trouble. Decades of overuse and drought have sharply reduced its water supply, threatening an ecosystem that supports 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of farmland. Stanford economist Paul Milgrom won a Nobel Prize in part for his role in enabling today’s mobile world. Now he’s tackling a different 21st century challenge: water scarcity.
-
-
ENERGY SECURITYRivers Are the West’s Largest Source of Clean Energy. What Happens When Drought Strikes?
With rivers across the West running low, utilities must get creative if they are to meet demand without increasing emissions.
-
-
OUR PICKSTrump Refuses to Rule Out Post-Election Violence | Airports Insider Threat | Why is Mexico Helping to Solve Biden’s Border Problem, and more
· Trump Again Vows Mass Deportations and Won’t Rule Out Political Violence
Trump refused to rule out violence if he were to lose the November election: “It always depends on the fairness of an election,” he said, declining to call on his supporters not to resort to violence again· The White House Has a New Master Plan to Stop Worst-Case Scenarios
President Joe Biden has updated the directives to protect US critical infrastructure against major threats, from cyberattacks to terrorism to climate change· Airports, Insider Threat, and the Challenges of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
One of the most difficult threats to mitigate is an insider threat· Countering the Threat: Lone Wolves, Homemade Explosives, and the Path to a Safer Future
Defending against lone wolves and homemade explosives· Why is Mexico Helping to Solve Biden’s Border Problem?
Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has picked his side in the November U.S. election· The Threat of “AI Safety” to American AI Leadership
Instead of harnessing the positive potential of AI, a new regime of rules and regulations mandated in the name of “AI Safety” actively threatens the technology’s promise· The Dangerous Rise of GPS Attacks
Thousands of planes and ships are facing GPS jamming and spoofing. Experts warn these attacks could potentially impact critical infrastructure, communication networks, and more -
-
WORLD ROUNDUPHow Will AI Change Cyber Operations? | Appeasement Is Underrated | The Militarization of Latin American Security, and more
· UN Court Rules German Military Aid to Israel Can Continue
The UN top court has opted not to implement emergency measures limiting German assistance for Israel. Nicaragua had filed charges that German arms supplies to Israel were enabling acts of “genocide”· The Militarization of Latin American Security, Then and Now
Countries are turning to their armed forces to tackle domestic instability. That might have worked a century ago, but the circumstances have changed· Why No “Plain Statement Rule” Bars a President’s Prosecution for Murder
It’s simple: the supposed “plain statement rule” doesn’t exist· How Will AI Change Cyber Operations?
The U.S. government somehow seems to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the impact of AI on cyber operations· Xi Believes China Can Win a Scientific Revolution
Beijing’s techno-nationalist policies are more geopolitical than economic· Appeasement Is Underrated
Rejecting diplomacy by citing Neville Chamberlain’s deal with the Nazis is a willfully ignorant use of history -
-
GAZA PROTESTSLawmakers Call for Accountability Over Pro-Hamas Campus Violence
Pro-Hamas demonstrations on college campuses have become increasingly intense, and even violent in recent days, pushing lawmakers to call for a change. Senator Rick Scott (R-Florida) has, along with Tim Scott (R-S.C.), introduced the Stop Antisemitism on College Campuses Act, which would end federal funding for colleges and universities “that support, authorize, or facilitate events that promote antisemitism.”
-
-
RUSSIAN DISINFORMATIONRussia Accuses Ukrainian Energy Company Linked to Hunter Biden of Financing Terror
Russia’s top investigative body said it had opened a probe into a Ukrainian company that formerly had ties to the son of U.S. President Joe Biden, in what likely is an effort to spread disinformation in the midst of the heated U.S. presidential election campaign.
-
-
ARGUMENT: RUSSIAN DISINFORMATIONDon’t Buy Moscow’s Shameless Campaign Tying Biden to Its Terrorist Attack
Russia has offered many different explanations to the ISIS-K’s 22 March 2024 terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, but the most recent explanation offered by Russia is the most audacious yet: Russia now charges that the Ukrainian energy company Burisma financed the attack. Burisma is at the center of an effort by a congressional committee to impeach President Biden, but the case has all but collapsed. Hunter Stoll writes that Russia’s disinformation and propaganda apparatus appears to be searching for ways to keep Burisma in the news ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
-
-
CYBERSECURITYCybersecurity Researchers Spotlight a New Ransomware Threat – Be Careful Where You Upload Files
Today’s web browsers are much more powerful than earlier generations of browsers. Unfortunately, these capabilities also mean that hackers can find clever ways to abuse the browsers to trick you into letting ransomware lock up your files when you think that you’re simply doing your usual tasks online.
-
-
PUBLIC HEALTHCOVID May Have Eroded Doctors' Belief That They Are Obligated to Treat Infectious Patients
Broadly disseminated misinformation about the disease — e.g., how the virus spreads, effective treatments, vaccine efficacy and safety, and more – contributed to the erosion of doctors’ commitment to treat infectious disease patients because of doctors’ fear that they would contract the disease.
-
-
UNDERSEA WARFAREWhy the U.S. Will Stay Dominant in Undersea Warfare
The United States has been so far ahead in submarine technology and secure underwater operations over the past 50-plus years that its submarines are virtually undetectable by either China or Russia.
-
-
OUR PICKSNo, a Shadowy Figure Is Not Buying Tents for Columbia Student Protesters | The False Choice in the Debate Over Artificial Intelligence Regulation | Software Backdoor is a Wakeup Call for Cybersecurity, and more
· No, a Shadowy Figure Is Not Buying Tents for Columbia Student Protesters
Conspiracies about outside forces funding and orchestrating the university protests at Columbia and NYU have taken hold online, primarily on X· The False Choice in the Debate Over Artificial Intelligence Regulation
Should regulators focus on present-day or potential future AI risks? Both· Software Backdoor is a Wakeup Call for Cybersecurity
the problem was discovered by happenstance, and the bad news is, we are often at the mercy of luck when it comes to detecting cybersecurity attacks before they are actually deployed and used· Russia Vetoed a UN Resolution to Ban Space Nukes
A ban on weapons of mass destruction in orbit has stood since 1967. Russia apparently has other idea· Massive Policing for Paris Olympics to Include Security Checks for Some of the Capital’s Residents
Special anti-terrorism measures will also apply to all buildings near Olympic venues·How Australia Struggled to Get Elon Musk’s X to Remove Video of a Terrorist Attack
Australia argued that X hasn’t really removed the video because Australians can still use a virtual private network—which masks a user’s true location—to watch it -
-
WORLD ROUNDUPPushing back Against China’s Fishing Practices | Is India an Autocracy? | The Strategic Unseriousness of Olaf Scholz
· More Comprehensive Plan to Push back Against China’s Fishing Practices
Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in general and Chinese fishing practices in particular do pose significant threats to international and U.S. national security· Is India an Autocracy?
The erosion of democratic norms didn’t begin with Narendra Modi· Suddenly, Chinese Spies Seem to Be Popping Up All Over Europe
A flurry of arrests this week reflect the continent’s newly toughened response to Beijing’s espionage activities and political meddling· After 30 Years of ANC Rule, Zulu Heartlands Are Backing a Gay White Man
A young mayor is bridging old divisions of race and culture in KwaZulu-Natal and offering hope to poverty-stricken families let down by Nelson Mandela’s party· The Strategic Unseriousness of Olaf Scholz
His latest trip confirms that Germany’s China policy is made in corporate boardrooms -
-
IMMIGRATIONWhite House Says Plans to Address Causes of Migration Show Results
The White House’s strategy for curbing migration to the United States from Central America zeroes in on job creation, economic investment and support for human rights. Biden administration officials say is showing results, but analysts caution against unrealistic expectations.
-
-
MILITARY TECHNOLOGYIran’s Neutralized Counterstrike: Israel’s Air Defense Operation Was Effective—Just Not Necessarily Replicable
The immediate outcome of the thwarted Iranian missile attack on Israel is the clear evidence it provides that integrated air and ground air defense systems can provide adequate coverage against saturation attacks—at least under certain conditions. The point is, few other countries will be able to recreate Israel’s air defense successes.
-
-
MILITARY TECHNOLOGYAssessment of Israeli Strike on Iran near Esfahan
The Israeli attack on the S-300 missile defense system deployed around Iran’s nuclear facility in Esfahan demonstrated the capability of Israeli stand-off weapons to target deep inside Iran, evading detection and air defenses, leaving Iran’s nuclear and military facilities more vulnerable to attack.
-
-
ESPIONGAEIs the EU Ready to Ward Off Spies and Foreign-Influence Peddlers?
After a spate of foreign influence scandals at the European Parliament and in national capitals, EU officials are scrambling to get a handle on suspected Russian and Chinese espionage ahead of the June elections.
-
-
TIKTOKBanning TikTok Won’t Solve Social Media’s Foreign Influence, Teen Harm and Data Privacy Problems
Concerns about TikTok are not unfounded, but they are also not unique. Each threat posed by TikTok has also been posed by U.S.-based social media for over a decade. Lawmakers should take action to address harms caused by U.S. companies seeking profit as well as by foreign companies perpetrating espionage. Protecting Americans cannot be accomplished by banning a single app. To truly protect their constituents, lawmakers would need to enact broad, far-reaching regulation.
-
The long view
DEMOCRACY WATCHPreventing Another 'Jan. 6' Starts by Changing How Elections Are Certified, Experts Say
By Sara Savat
The 2024 presidential election may be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, but preventing a repeat of Jan. 6, 2021 — when false claims of a stolen election promoted by Donald Trump and his allies led to an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol —will be top of mind this election year. Research finds broad support among public for nonpartisan certification commissions.
ELECTION SECURITYStates Rush to Combat AI Threat to Elections
By Zachary Roth
This year’s presidential election will be the first since generative AI became widely available. That’s raising fears that millions of voters could be deceived by a barrage of political deepfakes. Congress has done little to address the issue, but states are moving aggressively to respond — though questions remain about how effective any new measures to combat AI-created disinformation will be.
RANSOMWARERansomware Attacks: Death Threats, Endangered Patients and Millions of Dollars in Damages
By Dino Jahic
A ransomware attack on Change Healthcare, a company that processes 15 billion health care transactions annually and deals with 1 in 3 patient records in the United States, is continuing to cause massive disruptions nearly three weeks later. The incident, which started on February 21, has been called the “most significant cyberattack on the U.S. health care system” by the American Hospital Association. It is just the latest example of an increasing trend.
CHINA WATCHChinese Government Hackers Targeted Critics of China, U.S. Businesses and Politicians
An indictment was unsealed Monday charging seven nationals of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with conspiracy to commit computer intrusions and conspiracy to commit wire fraud for their involvement in a PRC-based hacking group that spent approximately 14 years targeting U.S. and foreign critics, businesses, and political officials in furtherance of the PRC’s economic espionage and foreign intelligence objectives.
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLESAutonomous Vehicle Technology Vulnerable to Road Object Spoofing and Vanishing Attacks
Researchers have demonstrated the potentially hazardous vulnerabilities associated with the technology called LiDAR, or Light Detection and Ranging, many autonomous vehicles use to navigate streets, roads and highways. The researchers have shown how to use lasers to fool LiDAR into “seeing” objects that are not present and missing those that are – deficiencies that can cause unwarranted and unsafe braking or collisions.
CYBERDETERRENCETantalizing Method to Study Cyberdeterrence
By Trina West
Tantalus is unlike most war games because it is experimental instead of experiential — the immersive game differs by overlapping scientific rigor and quantitative assessment methods with the experimental sciences, and experimental war gaming provides insightful data for real-world cyberattacks.
AIRPORT SECURITYPrototype Self-Service Screening System Unveiled
TSA and DHS S&T unveiled a prototype checkpoint technology, the self-service screening system, at Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) in Las Vegas, NV. The aim is to provide a near self-sufficient passenger screening process while enabling passengers to directly receive on-person alarm information and allow for the passenger self-resolution of those alarms.
SPACE DEBRISFalling Space Debris: How High Is the Risk I'll Get Hit?
By Zulfikar Abbany, Julia Vergin, and Katja Sterzik
An International Space Station battery fell back to Earth and, luckily, splashed down harmlessly in the Atlantic. Should we have worried? Space debris reenters our atmosphere every week.
WILDFIRESUsing Drone Swarms to Fight Forest Fires
Forest fires are becoming increasingly catastrophic across the world, accelerated by climate change. Researchers are using multiple swarms of drones to tackle natural disasters like forest fires.
DRONESTesting Cutting-Edge Counter-Drone Technology
Drones have many positive applications, bad actors can use them for nefarious purposes. Two recent field demonstrations brought government, academia, and industry together to evaluate innovative counter-unmanned aircraft systems.
IMMIGRATIONSocial Acceptance of Immigrants Working as Politicians or Judges Is Low
Often, the dominant society develops negative attitudes towards immigrants and their descendants because their integration is too successful – and not because they are unwilling to integrate. A possible explanation for negative attitudes towards successful immigrants could be the dominant society’s fear of immigrants occupying influential and value-based occupations. This applies, for example, for immigrants working in local politics or law.
ENERGY SECURITYStrengthening the Grid’s ‘Backbone’ with Hydropower
By Michael Matz
Argonne-led studies investigate how hydropower could help add more clean energy to the grid, how it generates value as grids add more renewable energy, and how liner technology can improve hydropower efficiency.
ARMS TRADEEuropean Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply
States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.
ENERGY SECURITYLNG Exports Have Had No Impact on Domestic Energy Costs: Analysis
U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) exports have not had any sustained and significant direct impact on U.S. natural gas prices and have, in fact, spurred production and productivity gains, which contribute to downward pressure on domestic prices.
CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITYHow Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
By Doug Irving
“People talk about climate change as a threat multiplier,” said Karen Sudkamp, an associate director of the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program within the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. “But at what point do we need to start talking about the threat multiplier actually becoming a significant threat all its own?”
TECH APOCALYPSEThe Tech Apocalypse Panic is Driven by AI Boosters, Military Tacticians, and Movies
By Matthew Guariglia
From popular films like a War Games or The Terminator to a U.S. State Department-commissioned report on the security risk of weaponized AI, there has been a tremendous amount of hand wringing and nervousness about how so-called artificial intelligence might end up destroying the world. There is one easy way to avoid a lot of this and prevent a self-inflicted doomsday: don’t give computers the capability to launch devastating weapons.