Seismic early warning California needs $54 million to deploy ShakeAlert earthquake warning system

Published 8 October 2014

Officials in California need $54 million fully to implement the ShakeAlert earthquake warning system, according to a scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).ShakeAlert detects earthquakes using the California Integrated Seismic Network of roughly 400 ground motion sensors which identify primary waves (P-waves) as they move through the Earth at almost twice the speed of the earthquakes’ destructive S-waves, which shake the ground.When an earthquake is detected, ShakeAlert informs emergency management officials of the quake’s epicenter, and a computer-generated voice counts the remaining time before shaking occurs.

Officials in California need $54 million fully to implement the ShakeAlert earthquake warning system, according to a scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The agency has been testing ShakeAlert since 2012 with selected public and private sector partners, including California Institute of Technology, University of California Berkeley, Google, Metrolink, and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART). The system predicted that the 24 August Napa quake would be a 5.7 magnitude earthquake, and seismologists later recorded the event at 6.0.

ShakeAlert detects earthquakes using the California Integrated Seismic Network of roughly 400 ground motion sensors which identify primary waves (P-waves) as they move through the Earth at almost twice the speed of the earthquakes’ destructive S-waves, which shake the ground.

Palo Alto Online reports that California requires roughly 440 new sensors to make the warnings available to the general public. David Oppenheimer, a USGS geophysicist, estimates the cost at $38 million for capital expenses, and $16.1 million annually to operate the service. “It’s a question for society and our elected officials: Is it worth it to fund this system?” Oppenheimer said. It would take three years to develop the system’s public notification service so residents throughout California could be notified of an incoming earthquake via cellphone, radio, or other mass communication systems.

The Napa quake caused an estimated $400 million in losses for residents and businesses, including an estimated $80.3 million to the Napa wine industry, the Napa County Executive Office said. In addition to the potential to save property, a few seconds notice could help save thousands of lives. “BART is worried about a derailment. If one train goes off the tracks, the economic impact would be huge. And there are on average 100 people per train,” Oppenheimer said. Transit authorities could slow down or halt trains when an alert is issued for an earthquake. Medical facilities could notify surgeons and dentists to stop performing delicate procedures, and emergency responders could direct their responses to the most affected areas based on ShakeAlert maps available to emergency officials.

When an earthquake is detected, ShakeAlert informs emergency management officials of the quake’s epicenter, and a computer-generated voice counts the remaining time before shaking occurs. When fully implemented, ShakeAlert will distribute alerts to several emergency communication systems including the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) wireless emergency system, social media partners, and smartphone applications. ShakeAlert, however, may at times issue false alerts or fail to recognize incoming earthquakes. “No system is perfect,” said a statement from ShakeAlert administrators. “While all these ‘failure modes’ are possible, rigorous planning and testing should minimize them.”