TERRORISMTehran’s Homeland Option: Terror Pathways for Iran to Strike in the United States
The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future.In addition to attacking U.S. targets around the world, Iranian operatives or their agents could also attempt to carry out attacks inside the United States, leveraging what U.S. counterterrorism officials have describe as a “homeland option” developed over years.
Abstract: The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future. European authorities exposed plots in Sweden and Germany even as the war was being waged, and Israeli authorities issued a warning over potential attacks in the United Arab Emirates a couple of weeks later, specifically citing heightened concerns in the wake of the war with Iran. Iranian operatives or their agents could also attempt to carry out attacks inside the United States, leveraging what U.S. counterterrorism officials have describe as a “homeland option” developed over years. Given the U.S. role in bombing the Fordow nuclear complex, it should not be a surprise that U.S. authorities quickly issued a terrorism advisory warning of potential Iranian plots in the homeland. Drawing on past cases of Iranian plots in the United States and elsewhere, this article explores the primary pathways available to Iran conduct or enable a terrorism act in the United States. These include deploying Iranian agents, criminal surrogates, terrorist proxies, or actively seeking to inspire lone offenders to carry out attacks within the homeland.
The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future. Authorities in Europe have already exposed two plots linked to Iran, one targeting Israeli and American interests in Sweden1 and another targeting Jewish institutions and specific Jewish individuals in Germany.2 But Iran and its proxies have spent years investing in a “homeland option”3 here in the United States as well. In just the past five years, U.S. authorities have disrupted at least 17 Iranian plots in the homeland, including those involving Iranian operatives as well as terrorist and criminal proxies.4 Other cases that fell short of plotting for a specific attack include a Hezbollah operative in Texas who purchased 300 pounds of ammonium nitrate,5 an explosive precursor, and another who carried out surveillance missions in New York and Canada.6 U.S. law enforcement and intelligence authorities remain on high alert for potential revenge attacks by Iranian agents or proxies arising out of the 12-day Israel-Iran war and the June 21 U.S bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities.
