Water securityClimate change to alter water flows in Africa's rivers, leads to cross-border water conflicts

Climate change could significantly alter water flows in major river basins in Africa, presenting a new barrier to nascent efforts to better manage water for food production and to resolve potential cross-border water conflicts all over southern Africa, according to research findings presented at this week’s Third International Forum on Water and Food in Tshwane, South Africa.

As part of a five-year global research project, scientists from the CGIAR’s Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) examined the potential effect from now through 2050 of higher temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, caused by climate change, on river basins around the world. In the process, they say, some unsettling scenarios have emerged for parts of Africa.

“Climate change introduces a new element of uncertainty precisely when governments and donors are starting to have more open discussions about sharing water resources and to consider long-term investments in boosting food production,” said Alain Vidal, director of the CPWF. “To prevent this uncertainty from undermining key agreements and commitments, researchers must build a reliable basis for decisions, which takes into account the variable impacts of climate change on river basins.”

Burness Communications reports that particularly alarming are the projected changes in southern Africa’s Limpopo Basin, which is home to fourteen million people and includes parts of Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Using data averages from climate models by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CPWF experts found that rising temperatures and declining rainfall in the Limpopo over the next few decades could deliver a one-two punch to the already marginal environment — depressing food production and intensifying poverty.

“We need to ask whether current agriculture development strategies in the Limpopo, which are predicated on current levels of water availability, are in fact realistic for a climate future that may present new challenges and different opportunities,” said Dr. Simon Cook, a scientist with the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and head of CPWF’s Basin Focal Projects (BFP).

“In some parts of the Limpopo even widespread adoption of innovations like drip irrigation may not be enough to overcome the negative effects of climate change on water availability,” Cook added. “But in other parts, investments in rain-fed agriculture such as rainwater harvesting, zai pits and small reservoirs might be better placed, as there could be sufficient rainfall for innovative strategies to boost production. The key is to obtain the data needed to make an informed decision.”