ISISIs the Islamic State finished? Five possible scenarios
Most military analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before Mosul falls. The next target on the coalition’s agenda is Raqqa, Syria, the capital of IS. It may only be a matter of time before IS’s territorial “caliphate” is no more. What then will be the fate of IS? Can the group survive without controlling any territory? Will it rebound? Or will it disappear? Whatever the case, history provides lessons on how effectively to deal with movements and individuals who wage war against the international order. For example, during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, anarchists struck out at rulers and symbols of capitalism throughout the world. Then, suddenly, the wave of anarchist violence ceased. Historians point to a number of reasons the anarchist moment passed. Anarchism competed for hearts and minds with other dissident groups. Nations undertook political and social reforms that addressed the grievances of potential anarchists. They adopted new methods of policing and surveillance. Police agencies cooperated across borders. But perhaps most important was the fact that high-risk movements that attempt to realize the unrealizable have a short shelf life. Such might be the case for IS.
Most military analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before Mosul falls.
Mosul is Iraq’s third largest city. The Islamic State captured it in June 2014 during a campaign that left it in control of territory the size of the United Kingdom. But on 16 October 2016, a coalition of the Iraqi army, military forces from Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region and paramilitary units, began an attack to recapture the city.
Military prowess does not explain IS’s initial success in Iraq. Rather, it depended on the collapse of the Iraqi army and Sunni disaffection with the Shi’i-dominated Iraqi government.
But, then, between 2015 and 2016, IS territory in Iraq shrank by an estimated 50 percent. IS has lost major population centers, including the cities of Tikrit, Ramadi, Kobani, Fallujah and Palmyra.
The next target on the coalition’s agenda is Raqqa, Syria, the capital of IS. It may only be a matter of time before IS’s territorial “caliphate” is no more.
What then will be the fate of IS? Can the group survive without controlling any territory? Will it rebound? Or will it disappear?
Five possible scenarios
Scenario #1: IS goes underground, only to emerge in the future
This scenario is not very likely. It ignores the unique circumstances that gave rise to IS and enabled it to win victory after victory in 2014: the political and military vacuum created by the Syrian civil war, the dysfunction of the Iraqi government of Nuri al-Maliki, the collapse of the Iraqi army and the indifference of much of the world to the group’s ambitions until it was too late. A similar set of circumstances is unlikely in the future.
Scenario #2: IS will simply set up shop elsewhere
Over the years, IS has established franchises in West and North Africa, Libya, Yemen, the Sinai, and other locations. In some places, such as Libya, IS deployed fighters from Syria and Iraq to establish its franchises. In others, preexisting groups pledged allegiance to the caliphate. Boko Haram in West Africa is one such group.
IS assumed that each of its franchises would expand the territory under its control until it met up with other franchises and, eventually, with the caliphate based in Syria and Iraq. Observers call this an “ink spot” strategy because each affiliate would widen like an ink spot on blotting paper.
