EpidemicsMore Outbreak Details Emerge as COVID-19 Cases Top 70,000

As cases passed the 70,000 mark today, China published a detailed picture of its COVID-19 outbreak, which now shows signs of declining; however, officials warned cases could rebound as people return to work and school after the extended Lunar New Year break.

In other developments, the number of infected people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan continued to soar, as infections were detected in 14 Americans who were just evacuated from the ship.

Large Epi Study Notes 14% Severe Rate
China’s report on the outbreak’s epidemiologic patterns covers all COVID-19 cases reported through Feb 11 and appears in the China CDC Weekly, a publication that is similar to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The team analyzed more than 72,000 patient records, of which 44,672 were lab-confirmed cases, 16,186 suspected cases, 10,567 clinically diagnosed cases, and 889 asymptomatic cases. Of the confirmed cases, 80.9% cases were mild, and the vast majority (86.6%) of confirmed cases were in people ages 30 to 79 years old.

About 14% of the illnesses were severe, which included pneumonia and shortness of breath, and about 5% have critical disease, marked by respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure. The overall case fatality rate was 2.3%, and of 1,023 deaths included in the study, the majority were in people age 60 and older or those with underlying medical conditions.

CIDRAP reports that epidemiologic curve analysis shows a common source pattern in December, which shifted to a propagated source pattern starting in early January, which the researchers said might reflect several zoonotic events at the outbreak market in Wuhan. Around Jan 23 to Jan 26, the epidemic peaked and began to decline, according to the data.

Though 1,716 healthcare workers were infected in the outbreak, 5 of them fatally, there is no evidence of super-spreader events in healthcare facilities caring for COVID-19 cases, the group wrote. Those events were hallmarks of outbreaks involving severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). So far, it’s not clear if the difference is due to the virus or prevention tactics, they noted.

China’s massive control measures, which started on Jan 23 with limiting travel in and out of Wuhan, slowed China’s epidemic and its spread to the rest of the world, the authors note. But they warn that officials need to prepare for the epidemic to rebound when huge numbers of people in China return to