WILDFIRESUnprecedented Change in Europe’s Fire Regime Driven by Climate Change

Published 5 July 2022

A new study reveals an unprecedented change in the fire regime in Europe which is related to climate change. The study detected summer and spring seasons with unprecedented values of fire risks over the last years, so many areas of southern Europe and the Mediterranean are reaching extreme conditions conducive to fires.

A study reveals an unprecedented change in the fire regime in Europe which is related to climate change. The affected areas are in Southern, Central and Northern Europe but this historical change in Europe’s fire regime is more intense in the Mediterranean area. The study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, is led by Jofre Carnicer, lecturer of Ecology at the Faculty of Biology, and member of the Biodiversity Research Institute (IRBio) of the University of Barcelona and the Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF).

Spring and Summer Seasons with a High Fire Risk
The study detected summer and spring seasons with unprecedented values of fire risks over the last years, so many areas of southern Europe and the Mediterranean are reaching extreme conditions conducive to fires.These adverse conditions are becoming more frequent due to the increasing heatwaves and hydrological droughts.

“This increase in extreme fire risk is quite recent and at critical times it exceeds the fire-fighting capabilities of European societies, causing higher CO2 emissions associated with fire in extremely hot and dry summers”, notes Carnicer, first author of the study and member of the Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences of the UB.

Forests and Carbon Sinks, Threatened
The study links the increase in fire risk to a higher number of fire-induced CO2 emissions measured in satellite observations over the European continent. This phenomenon is occurring the Mediterranean Europe but also in the colder, northern and boreal Europe, which has important carbon sinks in the tundra and boreal forests.

The fire risk and impacts estimates based on meteorological data and satellite detection of fire impact have changed over time. This is the first time the recent increase in fire risks due to weather conditions is detected and it translates into a significative increase in fire-associated CO2 emissions in periods of extreme heat and danger of fires in summer.

“Forest and mountain areas in the southern and central Europe are the areas where the highest fire risks are detected”, notes Carnicer. “These areas are large carbon sinks that would be threatened by the fire, such as the Pyrenees, the Iberian and Cantabrian massifs in Spain, the Alps, the French central massif, the Italian Apennines in central Europe, the Carpathian Mountains, the Balkans, the Caucasus and the Pontic in the southeast area of Europe”.