Mathematics Can Predict, Prevent the Next Pandemic | Should the Government Save Intel? | Transnational Repression Increasingly Reaches into the U.S., and more

Transnational Repression Increasingly Reaches into the United States  (Jason P. Hipp, Emily Merrifield, and Susanna D. Evarts, Just Security)
Freedom of speech. Freedom of association. Freedom of movement. Many in the United States take these protections for granted and may not even think about them on a daily, or even weekly, basis. But for people who have fled authoritarian regimes, and in many cases risked their lives to come to the United States seeking refuge, these protections and the hope for safety are paramount. Unfortunately, that promise of freedom and safety is being undermined. Undermined by authoritarian regimes and their allies who are willing to take whatever means necessary – from tracking people with surveillance spyware to hiring hitmen – to show that making it to the United States is not enough to guarantee your freedom or safety. 
In recent years, we have witnessed a growing trend of authoritarian regimes reaching across national borders to silence dissent, an act known as “transnational repression.” According to Freedom House, authoritarian governments are “increasingly and more aggressively disregarding U.S. laws to threaten, harass, surveil, stalk, and even plot to physically harm people across the country.” The goal: to intimidate and deter people from exercising their human rights and fundamental freedoms. 
This rise in transnational repression is partly attributable to the greater global backlash against democratization and an increase in global digital interconnectedness. Historically, it has been difficult to hold foreign regimes accountable for their actions to target individuals beyond their own national borders, both because these acts can be difficult to track and link to the authoritarian regime and because certain legal doctrines impose obstacles to suits in U.S. courts against sovereign governments or their senior officials. However, two recent high-profile events on U.S. soil – the attempted kidnapping and assassination of Iranian women’s-rights activist Masih Alinejad, and the attempted assassination of famed author Salman Rushdie – again raise the question of whether and how the U.S. legal system can hold accountable not just the individual actors who directly engage in such wrongdoing, but also the authoritarian regimes, officials, and entities who direct, inspire, fund, and facilitate their actions. 

Does Russia Exercise Overall Control over the Wagner Group?  (Jenny Maddocks, Just Security)
The Wagner Group, has played a critical role throughout Russia’s operations in Ukraine. First appearing in Crimea in 2014, the private military company (PMC) later participated in the 2015 Debaltseve offensive and acted as Moscow’s enforcers in the Donbas. More recently, the group’s members have taken a leading role in the battle for Bakhmut, using waves of Russian prisoners as “cannon fodder.”
Russia’s use of the Wagner Group to promote its aims in Ukraine raises questions of accountability. It is alleged that like Russia’s conventional forces, members of the PMC have committed numerous violations of the law of armed conflict (LOAC). For example, reporting indicates that Wagner Group fighters played a key role in the massacres at Bucha, caused the deadly attack on a building housing Ukrainian prisoners of war, and brutally executed a former fighter. It is important to consider whether these actions are attributable to Russia, thereby leading to Russia’s State responsibility.

The Government’s TikTok Ban Overshadows Mobile Security Concerns  (Aaron Cockerill, Nextgov)
In the hit Netflix show “Wednesday,” the character performs an awkward yet hypnotizing dance that quickly became the rage on TikTok. While TikTok is primarily known for fun, viral moments, it is not without utility for government agencies. The app features a primarily young audience of teenagers and young adults whom governments may want to reach to promote jobs, services, programs, and other opportunities.
There is a problem though. Chinese technology company ByteDance, which owns TikTok, has come under fire for its suspect data privacy policies, resulting in legislation banning TikTok on government-issued devices for fear of the app becoming a gateway for malicious invasions. This decision highlights a larger mobile security problem within the federal government.

This Part of the U.S. Will Suffer Most from Climate Change  (Daniel Cusick, Scientific American)
A new index that rates 70,000 U.S. communities on their climate vulnerability finds that parts of the Gulf Coast subject to flooding and economic and racial inequities are most under threat