WORLD ROUNDUP – 12-18 FEBRUARY 2024The U.S. Must Re-Focus on Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Program | Understanding the Deterrence Gap in the Taiwan Strait | The U.S. Plans to ‘Lead the Way’ on Global AI Policy | How to Defeat a Mafia State, and more

Published 18 February 2024

MIDDLE EAST

·  How the U.S. Can Rein in Israel
While calls for conditional aid are widespread, Biden may be overlooking a highly effective diplomatic tool

·  Israel Was Behind Attacks on Major Gas Pipelines in Iran, Officials Say
The sabotage, which analysts said marked an escalation in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, caused sweeping disruption in several provinces.

·  The Head of UN’s Nuclear Watchdog Warns Iran Is ‘Not Entirely Transparent’ on Its Atomic Program
Tehran has accumulated enough enriched uranium to build several weapons, if it so chose

·  The ‘Biden Doctrine’ Will Make Things Worse
The White House is developing plans for the Middle East that are too ambitious for its own good

·  U.S. Confronts Dangers from “Not Very Good” Iran-Backed Militants
The militants’ periodic success in attacks may be unavoidable, given the sheer number of drones, rockets and missiles fired at U.S. troops

·  A Look at the Iraqi Government’s Relationship with Armed Groups That Are Clashing with U.S. Forces
Examining the complicated relationship between Iraq, paramilitary groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and the United State

·  The U.S. Must Re-Focus on Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Program
Iran is destabilizing the region and upending the global order. Washington and its allies must focus on developing a comprehensive plan of action

CHINA WATCH

·  Experts Warn of Possible Terrorist Attack by North Korea
Risk of ‘jihad-like’ strike grows after regime’s rejection of peaceful unification

·  Understanding the Deterrence Gap in the Taiwan Strait
What is stopping China from invading Taiwan?

·  The Real Reason North Korea Is Threatening War
To assess the risks and determine mitigation measures, it is necessary to examine Kim Jong-un’s thinking, policy failures, historical influence, and possible actions.

·  Mexico Is America’s Answer to China’s Belt and Road
Growing economic integration with Latin America could help the United States avoid the fate of an aging China

THE LONG VIEW

·  Joe Biden Must Resist Donald Trump’s Isolationism
Hand-wringing only strengthens the impulses of America’s isolationists. It is time that the administration pursued an entirely different approach, both internationally and domestically, and it is Biden himself who must take the lead.

·  How to Defeat a Mafia State
An unlikely coalition of urban professionals and Indigenous people has pulled off something extraordinary in Guatemala

·  Beating the Ossification Trap: Why Reform, Not Spending, Will Salvage American Power
There is a gap between the aspirations and capabilities of U.S. defense strategy — but the problem isn’t the amount of money America is spending or the size of the U.S. military

·  The U.S. Plans to ‘Lead the Way’ on Global AI Policy
The U.S. has signaled its intent to assert international influence over AI regulation, marking a departure from previous disengagement with data privacy standards.

·  Nuclear Arms Control Is for Realists
The world is on the brink of a new arms race

MORE PICKS

·  Nigeria Mulls State Policing to Combat Growing Insecurity
Nigeria is considering the introduction of state police in its 36 states to bolster its national police force

·  The Islamic State Group Poses Rising Threat in Africa Despite Progress, Un Experts Say
The Islamic State extremist group poses a rising threat amid political instability in West Africa and the Sahel

·  Donald Trump’s Misogyny Deters NATO from Female Leader
Mark Rutte, rather than Ursula von der Leyen, now favorite for key role against Russian aggression

·  Warning from House Intel Is About Russia’s Space Power
The intelligence is related to Moscow’s weaponization of its orbital systems, one of those informed about its content said

·  Milei’s Swing into Normality Might Not Last
The Argentine president’s rhetoric is bizarre—but so far, his policies aren’t

·  Indonesia Has Grand Ambitions for Its Nickel Industry
As the country heads to the polls this week, the future of Jakarta’s bid is set to come into sharper focus

·  Russian Memes Celebrate ‘Tucker Carlson Day’ After Putin Interview
In what appears to mark a new era of Russian disinformation, state-run media, Kremlin-backed social accounts, and Telegram channels are hailing Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian president Vladimir Putin as a massive victory.

·  Hungary and EU Face Off Over New Sovereign Defense Law
Hungary created a new investigative body with sweeping powers to gather information on any groups or individuals that receive foreign funding and influence public debate

·  On a Frozen Border, Finland Puzzles Over a ‘Russian Game’
As it votes on Sunday for a new president, NATO’s newest member says Moscow is testing it by turning asylum seekers into a political pressure point

·  Norway Has Overtaken Russia as Europe’s Top Gas Supplier
Europe’s increased dependence on Norway’s oil and gas has made the country’s energy installations more at risk of attack

MIDDLE EAST

How the U.S. Can Rein in Israel  (Barbara Elias, Foreign Policy)
With an Israeli offensive in Rafah looming, the United States continues to face several dilemmas in addressing the evolving humanitarian disaster in Gaza. A growing chorus of American citizens and policymakers alike are asking how the U.S. can support Israeli security while also protecting Palestinian civilians.
Coercing allies is tricky diplomatic business—especially when it comes to pushing policies that restrict a partner’s approach to national defense. Plus, the long-standing U.S. commitment to Israel diminishes U.S. bargaining power further. Far from feeling that they owe the Americans any favors, Israeli decision-makers in crisis are likely wagering that U.S. interests in maintaining an established strategic partnership against shared and emboldened enemies, including the Houthis and Iranians, will prevent Washington from pressing too hard on Israeli policymakers.
The most-often discussed pathway for the U.S. to pressure partners is making aid conditional on reforms. Last week, following mounting pressures from prominent Democratic lawmakers including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen, President Joe Biden signed a “historic” directive that would require all U.S. strategic partners to submit written confirmation certifying that U.S.-provided military assistance was being used in compliance with international law. However, it is unclear how this will impact Israeli policy or how the Biden administration will respond to violations. Part of the lack of clarity over what, if anything, this action does for Palestinians in Gaza or for U.S.-Israeli relations is a failure to appreciate the complications involved in making aid conditional on reform.

Israel Was Behind Attacks on Major Gas Pipelines in Iran, Officials Say  (Farnaz Fassihi, Eric Schmidt, Ronen Bergman and Julian E. Barnes, New York Times)
Israel carried out covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines inside Iran this week, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces with millions of people, according to two Western officials and a military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The strikes represent a notable shift in the shadow war that Israel and Iran have been waging by air, land, sea and cyberattack for years.
Israel has long targeted military and nuclear sites inside Iran — and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists and commanders, both inside and outside of the country. Israel has also waged cyberattacks to disable servers belonging to the oil ministry, causing turmoil at gas stations nationwide.