TERRORISMHezbollah, Hamas Down but Not Out, U.S. Says

By Jeff Seldin

Israel’s war against Hezbollah and Hamas, while inflicting considerable damage, has yet to strike a crippling blow to either of the Iran-backed terror groups, according to a top U.S. counterterrorism official.

The acting director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) said Tuesday that the impact of Israeli intelligence operations, along with repeated military airstrikes and ground offensives in Lebanon and Gaza, have severely diminished the ability of both groups to launch new attacks on Israel.

But he cautioned that both groups remain resilient, and in the case of Hezbollah, retain significant capabilities.

“Before the conflict, they [Hezbollah] had built up unprecedented numbers of rockets and missiles and other munitions,” the NCTC’s Brett Holmgren told an audience in Washington, adding that the Lebanese group was starting at a “very strong point.”

And he said while Israeli strikes have decimated Hezbollah leadership, the group’s ground forces in southern Lebanon “remain somewhat intact.”

Additionally, Israel’s actions have done little to damage Hezbollah’s reach beyond the Middle East.

“Their external capabilities have largely been untouched,” Holmgren said, noting the U.S. and its allies are on alert for any indication Hezbollah may seek to retaliate outside the region.

Hamas’ Staying Power
Hamas, which touched off the war in Gaza when it launched its October 7, 2023, terror attack that killed about 1,200 mostly Israeli civilians, has also suffered greatly, according to the latest U.S. assessments.

“Militarily, they have been significantly diminished,” Holmgren said. “They’re essentially morphing into an insurgent force on the ground.”

Yet despite being forced to keep a low profile and resort to hit-and-run-type tactics, U.S. intelligence sees few indications Hamas has lost its appeal.

“Hamas has been able to recruit new members to its ranks and will likely continue its ability to do so, so long as there is not another viable political option on the ground for these disaffected young men in Gaza to turn to,” Holmgren said.

“There has to be a more viable political actor on the ground in Gaza to give these new recruits for Hamas, to give them a better option,” he added.

Hamas, Hezbollah Numbers
Prior to Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, U.S. intelligence estimated that the U.S.-designated terror group had between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters, though some estimates put the number at 30,000 or more, citing support from about a dozen other terror groups that had pledged to fight under the Hamas banner.