Heathrow Fire Shows Just How Vulnerable U.K. Energy Infrastructure Is – We’ve Simulated the Major Climate-Related Risks

Cold spells: The most extreme cold weather will happen less often as the world warms. But the climate will become more variable, causing more sudden temperature shifts which may challenge energy distribution and demand management.

Flooding: Higher-intensity rainfall, particularly in winter, will increase the risk of flooded substations and gas pressure reduction stations. The former has led to large power outages.

This worst-case emissions scenario probably won’t happen, as the world is currently on a better trajectory. Nonetheless our results, alongside observed consequences of past events, underscore the need to safeguard the UK’s energy system against increasing climate threats.

Making the U.K. Energy System More Resilient
We propose several strategies to make UK energy infrastructure more resilient. Importantly, energy operators, policymakers and regulators should adopt a system-wide approach, as failures in one area can cascade across the entire network and affect other critical infrastructure. The Heathrow closure perfectly illustrates this.

Our report promotes adaptation measures that are currently available and will be beneficial regardless of future climate changes.

For instance, we could strengthen and protect vulnerable network assets like substations and power lines to better withstand extreme weather. This might involve building flood defenses around substations or raising them off the ground, undergrounding critical overhead lines, and protecting infrastructure vulnerable to falling trees blown over during windstorms.

We could use smart sensors and predictive analytics to monitor things like power lines and detect failures early. We could minimize disruptions during extreme weather by getting better at forecasting, and by improving rapid response capabilities. And we could further encourage off-peak energy use, to ease grid stress during extreme weather.

To build a resilient UK energy network, we need better tools to quantify and simulate climate risks, ensuring decision-making is based on robust scientific evidence.

We also urgently need new resilience metrics and standards. While guidelines such as ETR 138 exist for flood resilience, there is a lack of equivalent standards for other climate hazards such as windstorms or extreme heat. These standards help identify critical assets and parts of the network most in need of further protection.

The UK’s transition to net zero emissions should consider climate resilience as a priority. Investments in renewable energy infrastructure, battery storage and smart grids should incorporate resilience assessments from the outset.

We should also consider providing generators or other ways to produce energy at highly vulnerable locations where it is of critical need, including hospitals and airports such as Heathrow.

Finally, the energy sector needs to work closely with other critical infrastructure operators – such as transport, water and telecommunications – to mitigate cascading risks and ensure a coordinated response to extreme weather events. We’re part of a project that has begun to do this for transport. But resilience strategies should be extended to consider risks from climate, cyber-attacks, asset failures and extreme energy demand.

While the fire and power cut at Heathrow was not related to extreme weather, it highlights the consequences of such failures. By acting now, we can safeguard the UK’s energy networks against unprecedented extreme weather and ensure a secure, reliable and sustainable energy system for generations to come.

Hayley J. Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University. Colin Manning is Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Science, Newcastle University. Sean Wilkinson is Professor of Structural Engineering, Newcastle University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.