WORLD ROUNDUPCan Iran Still Build Nuclear Weapons After the U.S. Bombing? | Taiwan Is Rushing to Make Its Own Drones Before It’s Too Late | Police Allege That Jair Bolsonaro Sanctioned a Spy Ring, and more

Trump Got This One Right (Eliot A. Cohen,The Atlantic)
The president has made many poor decisions, but in striking Iran, he acted where his predecessors had failed.

Right Move, Wrong Team  (David Frum, The Atlantic)
The U.S. strikes on Iran might have been necessary, but the manner in which Trump acted should raise alarms about what lies ahead.

How Trump Could Lose This War  (Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy)
U.S. strikes were limited, but the campaign against Iran could still get messy.

‘Everybody Knows Khamenei’s Days Are Numbered’  (Arash Azizi, The Atlantic)
A well-placed group of Iranian insiders considers a future without the supreme leader.

Why a Wider War with Iran Is Unlikely  (Matthew Kroenig, Foreign Policy)
The regime is too weak to escalate or dash to a bomb.

Can Iran Still Build Nuclear Weapons After the U.S. Bombing?  (Richard Spencer and Tom Whipple, The Times)
Somewhere, the country probably possesses enough enriched uranium for nine warheads.Will the ‘bunker-buster’ attack put a stop to its nuclear ambitions?

Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War  (Joshua Rovner, War on the Rocks)
States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to the United States in order to win its support, and according to multiple reports, it is trying again. The White House is more likely to join the war against Iran if it accepts Israeli intelligence at face value. But in doing so, it will sacrifice its strategic flexibility and risk losing diplomatic leverage. For a president who cherishes bargaining power, this would be a grave mistake.

Taiwan Is Rushing to Make Its Own Drones Before It’s Too Late  (Justin Ling, Wired)
Unmanned vehicles are increasingly becoming essential weapons of war. But with a potential conflict with China looming large, Taiwan is scrambling to build a domestic drone industry from scratch.

Police Allege That Jair Bolsonaro Sanctioned a Spy Ring  (Economist)
The right-wing former president is already on trial for allegedly plotting a coup.

How to Fix the Cracks in the Nuclear Dam  (Adam Thomson, Foreign Policy)
The crisis in the Middle East shows why the world must repair Trump’s damage to the nonproliferation landscape.