Does Israel Have an Exit Strategy? | What Regime Change Means in Iran | Will China Force a Rethink of Biological Warfare? | How to Stop Regime Change in Europe, and more
Donald Trump and the Iran Crisis (David Remnick, New Yorker)
It’s not easy to trust the President to make an optimal decision. For one thing, he is suspicious of nearly every source of information save his own instincts.
The Three Dramatic Consequences of Israel’s Attack on Iran (Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic)
Great battles, won or lost, change the entire course of events.
An Islamic Republic with Its Back Against the Wall (Roger Cohen, New York Times)
The Iranian regime finds itself in its most difficult position 46 years after the revolution that brought it to power. But does it mean the end?
How Tiny Israel Brought Iran to Its Knees (Adrian Blomfield, The Telegraph)
Tehran is not beaten yet but the mullahs have rarely looked weaker.
Israel’s Long Road to Regional Dominance (Michael Hirsh, Foreign Policy)
First it humiliated the Arabs, then the Iranians—but Israel still needs Trump.
Intelligence Window Might Have Been a Factor in Timing of Israeli Attack on Iran (Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy)
Strategic concerns and domestic politics also played a role.
Exclusive: Inside the Spy Dossier That Led Israel to War (Economist)
We review its secret intelligence on Iranian nukes.
How IDF Intelligence Outmaneuvered Iran (Jerusalem Post)
While all kinds of political and strategic stories in Israel, the US, and Iran led to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to give the order to go to war with Iran, there is a specific one regarding operational intelligence that needed to happen to green light this. In October 2024, the IDF began to fixate on establishing a real operation plan that could actually take down Iran’s nuclear program and any other elements of its national power that could severely threaten Israel. Already in mid-2023, IDF intelligence and the Israel Air Force had pinpointed hundreds of potential targets to strike in a hypothetical war.
Israel’s Race to Kill Iran’s Nuclear Dream (Economist)
If it fails the regime could make a frantic dash for a bomb.
Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program Without the U.S.? (John Haltiwanger, Foreign Policy)
Experts say Iran’s nuclear program is battered but far from broken.
How Israel Executed Its Surprise Assault on Iran (Isaac Stanley-Becker and Shane Harris, The Atlantic)
Advanced espionage techniques made the most of Iranian vulnerabilities, but Israel’s ultimate aims may still be out of reach.
Does Israel Have an Exit Strategy? (David E. Rosenberg, Foreign Policy)
Netanyahu might be bumbling into a war of attrition with Iran.
Israel Is Going for the Death Blow on Iran (Steven A. Cook, Foreign Policy)
The Israeli attack on Iran is about much more than its nuclear program.
Israel’s Bold, Risky Attack (Tom Nichols, The Atlantic)
The Israeli campaign may be necessary, but preventive wars carry great moral and practical risks.
Iran Is Breaking Rules on Nuclear Activity, U.N. Watchdog Says (Steven Erlanger, New York Times)
The decision comes as officials say they believe that Israel is preparing to launch a military attack on Iran. Tehran condemned the vote.
Why Israel Struck Now (Graeme Wood, The Atlantic)
As Iran’s deterrence eroded, the risks of conflict climbed.
Iran’s Options for Retaliating Against Israel Have Narrowed (Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy)
Its proxies are weakened, and its arsenals have been degraded.
Iran’s Shadow War: How Hamas and the Houthis Endanger Homeland Security (Bardia Assefbarkhi, HSToday)
The October 7, 2023, attack on Israel marked a watershed moment in the evolution of threats from non-state actors, revealing unprecedented tactical sophistication that demands urgent attention from homeland security professionals. As Iranian-backed groups like Hamas and the Houthis increasingly blur the lines between insurgency and statecraft, their growing capabilities pose direct implications for regional stability and, ultimately, American security interests.
CHINA WATCH
China Unleashes Hackers Against Its Friend Russia, Seeking War Secrets (Megha Rajagopalan, New York Times)
Since the war in Ukraine began, analysts have monitored a series of intrusions aimed at stealing information about weaponry and warfighting.
How China’s Navy Just Got Closer to Its 2035 Naval Plan (Peter Suciu, National Interest)
The construction of China’s “Type 003” aircraft carrier puts Beijing on track to have six carriers by 2035—giving it the strength to go toe-to-toe with the US Navy.
Does Xi Have Trump’s Number? (Scott Kennedy, Foreign Policy)
China has come out ahead in recent dealmaking.
America’s Middle East Trap is China’s Strategic Windfall (Adham Sahloul, War on the Rocks)
As another carrier strike group steams to the Middle East and F-35 squadrons position themselves in the region with tankers, the American people should think hard about whether President Donald Trump is allowing the Middle East to overshadow blinking red priorities in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing has systematically exploited America’s Middle East quagmires, turning each crisis into a strategic windfall. The Trump administration now faces a critical choice: de-escalate Middle East tensions or watch China continue capitalizing on Washington’s undisciplined policymaking.
Will China Force a Rethink of Biological Warfare? (Al Mauroni and Glenn Cross, War on the Rocks)
Is the Defense Department still preparing to fight biological warfare as if it’s 1970?
When preparing for biological warfare, most nations picture scenarios in which an enemy openly sprays traditional agents over wide areas to kill their adversaries. However, revolutionary capabilities in the life sciences and biotechnology have transformed the threat. China’s approach to warfare, combined with these emerging technologies, reveals new vulnerabilities among Western forces that, to date, have not been fully acknowledged. In no small measure, this is due to the U.S. government’s continued reliance on a 20th-century strategy for countering weapons of mass destruction. In particular, as China is a major nuclear power, it cannot be threatened after it uses biological weapons as easily as a non-nuclear state. Given these points, can China be deterred from using such advanced biological weapons during a regional crisis in the Indo-Pacific, especially an invasion of Taiwan? And if not, is it possible to mitigate the damage from such a scenario?
Although Western attention has focused on the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear and conventional warfighting capabilities, one ought to expect equal analysis of China’s biological warfare potential. By examining China’s most recent efforts at biological research, we put forward that it has bypassed 20th-century Western concepts of biological warfare and has new capabilities that could be effective across the entire conflict spectrum. Given China’s new capabilities and nuclear arsenal, we assess that standard strategies of deterrence and protection likely will not work in the future. New approaches and new concepts will be necessary if the United States is to prepare itself for potentially new forms of biological warfare in the 21st century.
Can China Catch Up on AI? (Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy)
“We’re in the sprint mode of a real race for supremacy between the United States and China.”
If China Invaded Taiwan, Who Would Enter the War? (Economist)
Japan and the Philippines would struggle to stay out. But what about the rest?
THE LONG VIEW
Quietly, Pakistan Wages a Deadly Drone Campaign Inside Its Own Borders (Zia ur-Rehman, New York Times)
As it strikes militants, the country’s security services are adopting a tactic that Pakistan once criticized the United States for using.
South Korea’s New President Wants Flexible Diplomacy (Michelle Kim, Foreign Policy)
Lee Jae-myung is trying to avoid the ideological fixations of his predecessors.
Why Russia Is Still a Little Skeptical About BRICS Expansion (Mark N. Katz, National Interest)
While Putin sees BRICS expansion as a tool to counter Western influence, internal disagreements and differing group goals limit its effectiveness as a unified anti-Western alliance.
How to Stop Regime Change in Europe (Caroline de Gruyter, Foreign Policy)
A new book explains the danger of the far right—and how to counter Washington’s support for it.
Vladimir Putin’s Sway Over the U.S. Is Even Worse Than You Think (Dominic Lawson, The Times)
Members of Donald Trump’s administration such as Tulsi Gabbard are useful idiots for the Kremlin.
Asia’s Autocrats Welcome USAID’s End (Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy)
Conspiracy theories about U.S. power are now shared by the Trump administration.
MORE PICKS
The Wagner Group Is Leaving Mali. But Russian Mercenaries Aren’t Going Anywhere (Ryan Bauer, Moscow Times / RAND)
The June 6 announcement by the infamous Wagner Group private military company that it will end its three-and-a-half-year-long deployment in Mali is an important development in Russia’s evolving mercenary landscape. Even as one Russian mercenary group is leaving, the country’s presence in Africa is not going anywhere.
The Sarkozy-Gaddafi Trial Exposes Corruption’s Devastating Effect on Libyans (Chiara-Lou Parriaud and Grace Spalding-Fecher, Just Security)
The corruption trial of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy in France is testing the country’s democratic resilience and the judiciary’s capacity to act as a counter-power to leaders bending democratic rules. Sarkozy, who led the country from 2007 to 2012, is accused of illegally funding his 2007 presidential campaign with millions of euros from one of Africa’s most notorious dictators, former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, in exchange for France strengthening its ties to Libya and reexamining its terrorism charge against Gaddafi’s brother-in-law and Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi. In March, French prosecutors demanded that if Sarkozy is found guilty, he must serve seven years of detention, pay the equivalent of $340,000 in damages, and be banned from political office.
The case marks the culmination of a decade-long judicial investigation into a sprawling corruption scheme “fanned by ambition, lust for power and greed, weaving its web in the highest levels of government,” according to the prosecution. Judges of the Paris Criminal Court heard arguments from Jan. 6 to April 10, and will deliver their verdict on Sept. 25.
In the meantime, much of the media attention has focused on how the “Sarkozy-Gaddafi affair” is challenging France and its democratic institutions, with too little coverage of how the corruption has harmed the people of Libya. Since NATO’s intervention in 2011 and Gaddafi’s resulting death, two competing factions emerged from the power struggle that followed the regime’s fall: the internationally backed Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) turned Government of National Unity (GNU) in 2021 in western Libya and the Government of National Stability (GNS), led by de facto leader warlord Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) in Benghazi in the East. A civil war raged between these factions until October 2020. Since then, numerous United Nations-led attempts at a more permanent peace have failed to materialize on the ground. Tensions remain high and elections have not been held. Libyans continue to endure the consequences of decades of political instability, worsened by foreign interference, institutionalized corruption, and escalating repressive authoritarianism.
As the Sarkozy trial nears its conclusion this fall, it should provoke deeper scrutiny of how democracies engage with dictatorships – pushing policymakers to critically consider the real-world consequences of Western actions on the lives of local populations. Acknowledging Sarkozy’s legacy in Libya, France should go beyond its lip service to the U.N.-led peace process and work to foster democracy and fundamental freedoms Libyans crucially need, holding both the GNU and the LNA accountable. Alongside its democratic commitments, France should also reckon with the human rights consequences of its Libya foreign policy and interference in the post-Sarkozy era.
Is America Prepared for Korea’s New President? (Seung-Whan Choi, National Interest)
South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, is a pragmatic outsider whose “Korea First” approach could strain ties with Trump, especially over AI, North Korea, and potential nuclearization.
