CHINA WATCHThe Taiwan Scenarios 1: Subversion, Quarantine, Blockade, Invasion
President Xi Jinping likely favors a path to unification in which Taiwan is gradually worn down by sustained and intensifying Chinese coercion. However, if he sought to accelerate this process, he would likely favor actions that remained below the threshold of war but still compelled Taiwan to cede aspects of its sovereignty.
ASPI has wargamed President Xi Jinping’s options for subjugating Taiwan. We tried four scenarios, the details of which will be presented in this and three more daily articles this week.
President Xi Jinping likely favors a path to unification in which Taiwan is gradually worn down by sustained and intensifying Chinese coercion. However, if he sought to accelerate this process, he would likely favor actions that remained below the threshold of war but still compelled Taiwan to cede aspects of its sovereignty. This could include the China Coast Guard enforcing a quarantine of Taiwan—asserting a right to block certain imports and exports— or covert acts of subversion intended to trigger a broader crisis and increase pressure on Taipei.
While more overt options, such as a full-scale invasion or naval blockade, remain possible, they carry significant risks that could threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power. As long as Xi views these risks as credible, actions that could rapidly escalate to war are unlikely to be his preferred course.
Xi has made his intentions regarding Taiwan clear. At the 20th Party Congress, he reiterated that, while peaceful unification was his preferred approach, China still reserved the right to use force if necessary. Although he has set no specific deadline, he warned in 2013 that the Taiwan issue ‘should not be passed down generation after generation.’ In his recent speeches, Xi continues to assert that unification is inevitable, signaling his determination to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control sooner rather than later.
Here are outlines of the four scenarios we wargamed.
Subversion—The Shadow War
During the Spanish Civil War, Nationalist forces advancing on cities such as Madrid relied on what was called a fifth column, a covert network of sympathizers within Republican-held territory who worked to undermine the government from within. Could a similar scenario unfold in Taiwan? According to a former Taiwanese military intelligence director, more than 5,000 people are operating in Taiwan on behalf of the Chinese government.
