Are Political Assassinations on the Rise? A Criminologist Weighs in on the Shooting Death of Charlie Kirk
In just the past five years, the U.S. has seen almost three times as many attacks and plots as it did over the entire previous quarter-century, according to CSIS. Political violence is at its worst point in the U.S. since the 1970s, according to Reuters.
The difference today, Fox says, is that perpetrators are targeting individuals they believe to be associated with the opposing faction or party instead of, say, government buildings or employees, as was the case in the 1990s during anti-government militia movements.
“There’s been a shift from expressing violence against the government as an entity to partisan individuals representing the opposing set of views,” he says.
However, Peter Fraunholtz, assistant teaching professor in history and international affairs at Northeastern University, qualifies that it’s not so easy to discern a motive in these cases, even if the target appears to be clearly linked to one or another political faction.
Investigators are still working to determine a motive behind the targeted killing of Minnesota lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband — and no definitive motive was ever established in the two assassination attempts on Trump’s life.
“In an age of considerable anxiety driven by economic, cultural and social factors, political polarization has taken on an existential component,” Fraunholtz says. “Each tribe or faction sees the others contributing to the imminent destruction of proper American norms, values and liberties.”
As political discourse has increasingly spilled over to social media in recent decades, Fox says platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok have helped sow the seeds of political polarization and violence.
“There is all sorts of stuff brewing on social media; people can find others who agree with them, and, therefore, solidify and reinforce their point of view,” Fox says.
Data shows that the U.S. has become more politically polarized in recent decades. A 2025 Gallup poll found that more Democrats and Republicans are identifying themselves at the extreme ends of the political spectrum — and data shows that Americans on both sides increasingly disagree on a shared set of facts.
“There’s data showing that a significant number of people in this country believe that there’s going to be a civil war,” Fox says.
“I don’t recall a time in the past when people ran around, as they do today, with a hat that says I’m a Democrat or a Republican,” Fox says. “But the MAGA hats, which have obviously become popular, clearly identify one side, and that’s something that is new in this day and age: that people would wear their political persuasions on their bodies.”
Fox also cautions not to jump to conclusions about what might have motivated Kirk’s killer. Investigators say they have obtained “high quality” video of a suspect, releasing several images of a person of interest.
The manhunt continued into Thursday afternoon.
Kirk’s killing sparked widespread condemnation from politicians on both sides of the aisle.
“There is no place in our country for this kind of violence. It must end now,” former President Joe Biden said on social media. “Jill and I are praying for Charlie Kirk’s family and loved ones.”
Trump said on Thursday that he will award Kirk a posthumous Presidential Medal of Freedom.
Tanner Stening is Northeastern Global News reporter. The article was originally posted to the website of Northeastern University.
