GitmoNew report disputes Gitmo repeat offender rates

On 11, January 2011, three researchers at the New America Foundation (NAF) – a non-partisan public policy think tank –released a report contradicting the director of national intelligence on the number of former Guantanamo detainees who have returned to the battlefield.

In December James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, revealed that 13.5 percent of former detainees had been confirmed of reengaging in terrorist activities after their release, while an additional 11.5 percent were suspected of doing so. As of October 2010, 598 detainees had been transferred out of Guantanamo with 81 people confirmed and 69 people suspected of returning to the battlefield.

The report released by NAF researchers aimed to quantify claims made by the U.S intelligence community about terrorist recidivism rates and does not dispute the fact that many former detainees have taken up arms against the United States or that these individuals are dangerous.

Researchers were surprised to see U.S intelligence reports indicate that an “astonishing one in four of those released from Guantanamo are either terrorist/insurgents or suspected to be.”

For security reasons, the Pentagon identified by name only 20 percent of the 150 men believed to have returned to the battlefield, leaving their claim to be taken “largely on trust.”

According to careful analysis of Pentagon reports, news stories, and other public data, researchers found that only 6 percent of the 598 released detainees had returned to the battlefield against the United States.

This number represents only a 2 percent increase from a previous analysis that researchers completed in July of 2009, as compared to the 11.1 percent increase that U.S intelligence agencies had noted for a similar time period.

Citing individuals by name, the report identified thirty-six people “who are suspected or confirmed of engaging in anti-American terrorist activities” as well as twelve others who are suspected or confirmed of engaging in terrorist activities but not aimed at the United States or its allies.

This number of confirmed or suspected terrorists is likely to increase, as data show a delay of about two and a half years before released detainees reengage in terrorist or insurgent activity.

The 6 percent of found to have reengaged in terrorist activities included Mohammed Yusif Yaqub and Maulvi Abdul Ghaffar, who joined insurgent operations in Afghanistan and were killed in 2004; Said al-Shihiri, the high profile leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, who is believed responsible for the failed attack on a Detroit bound airplane on Christmas Day; and Abdullah Ghulam Rasoulwho is now an important Taliban military leader in southern Afghanistan.

The overwhelming majority of the 150 men who have been identified or suspected of reengaging in terrorism were released under President George W. Bush, while five have been released under the Obama administration.

The authors were careful to note that there may be specific evidence that the Pentagon and other intelligence agencies have kept classified that would indicate more detainees have returned to the battlefield.

The researchers were fairly certain of their statistics, however, as many of the names of former detainees that return to terrorist activities are prominently announced as great victories by al Qaeda, the Taliban, or other terrorist organizations in media releases.

The report was written by Peter Bergen, the director of national security studies at the New America Foundation, Katherine Tiedemann, a research fellow and doctoral student at George Washington University, and Andrew Lebovich, a program associate with the New America Foundation.