• To Quit Russian Gas, EU Invests Billions in LNG

    The European Union is investing billions in infrastructure in its effort to replace Russian fuels with liquefied natural gas. This could prove to be a dead end — both for taxpayers and for the climate.

  • The Global Race to Secure Critical Minerals Heats Up

    The World Trade Organization last week ruled that Indonesia had no right to ban the export of nickel or to require that raw nickel ore be refined in Indonesia. Handing a comprehensive victory to the complainant, the European Union, the WTO decision highlights the clash between national security and global trade rules over critical minerals.

  • Schengen States Extend Border Checks, Ignoring EU Court

    Though the top EU court recently ruled that Germany, Denmark and other Schengen states have no legal basis for extending border checks reimposed in 2015, the European Commission is not initiating infringement procedures.

  • Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements

    What are the key factors that U.S. policymakers and military planners should consider when assessing how China is likely to react to planned or proposed U.S. posture enhancements in the Indo-Pacific region?

  • U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Network Supplying Russia with Weapons Tech

    The United States has imposed sanctions on a network of entities and individuals that it says are involved in supplying Russia with military technology to use in its war against Ukraine.

  • China and Global Development of Critical Resources

    To what extent has China adhered to its pledge to not build new overseas coal power plants? What are the main concerns related to China’s ownership or control over power transmission and distribution companies in Latin America? What is the state of China’s deep- and distant-sea and seabed mining exploration activities, and to what extent does it use these activities for ulterior strategic purposes?

  • China’s Chip Talent Problem Worsens After Layoffs at U.S. Firm Marvell

    Marvell Technology has confirmed that it is eliminating research and development staffs in China – the third U.S. chipmaker that has done so this year as the U.S.-China tech rivalry intensifies. This will hobble China’s chip ambitions and worsen its talent shortfall in the field of designing and manufacturing cutting-edge computer chips.

  • Economic Sanctions Have a Poor Success Rate

    Economic sanctions have become the weapon of choice in the United States’ diplomatic and strategic arsenal. Trade tariffs, export controls and other financial penalties offer a quick means to punish ‘bad behavior’. However, sanctions have a poor success rate, have high economic costs, and may also have massive unanticipated consequences for innocent bystanders.

  • What, If Any, Are the Chances of Toppling Putin and Who Might Take Over?

    There is a consensus among most of the Russian elite, including liberals (although it seems to be waning in recent times): there is no such thing as a truly post-Putin Russia. Putinism is so embedded in the country’s political, social and economic institutions and relationships that it’s almost impossible to imagine. A realistic prognosis of a post-Putin Russia and succession plan must take this into account.

  • Israel Presenting U.S. With Intelligence on Iranian Drones Used in Ukraine

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog shared intelligence about Iranian drones being used by Russian forces in Ukraine when he met Wednesday with U.S. President Joe Biden.

  • Will China Try to Take Taiwan in Xi’s Third Term?

    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s success in securing an unprecedented third term this weekend has fueled speculation on whether he will try to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — the self-ruled island seen by Beijing as a part of China — in the next few years. Partly fueling the speculation is that Xi, the strongest leader China has had in years, has often called for achieving China’s “rejuvenation,” which includes reunifying with Taiwan.

  • Companies Weigh Fallout from U.S. Ban on Sending Chip Tech to China

    The new U.S. ban the transfer of advanced U.S. semiconductor technology to China affects not only U.S. firms that sell to China, but any company whose products contain American semiconductor technology. Semiconductor companies and other tech firms that count China among their largest single markets are facing potentially severe damage to their revenues.

  • Sixty Years After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Nuclear Threat Feels Chillingly Immediate

    Graham Allison, author of Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, talks about how Kennedy and Khrushchev stepped back from brink, and says that Western leaders are worried that Putin might not.

  • The Promise and Peril of Guyana’s Oil Boom

    Most people may not have even heard of Guyana, a tiny country on the northeast coast of South America, but the former British colony is in the midst of an oil boom of staggering proportions. The vast oil reserves discovered off the Guyana coast will soon make Guyana a major oil producer. The question is whether Guyana will escape what economists call the “Resource Curse” — the phenomenon which sees economies that are blessed with natural resources experience less favorable development outcomes than their resource-poor counterparts.

  • Who Are Russia’s War Hawks, and Do They Matter?

    The evolving views of hard-liners within Russia’s paramilitary, media, and national security establishments offer important clues as to the direction Putin will take the war in Ukraine.