• China’s Chip Talent Problem Worsens After Layoffs at U.S. Firm Marvell

    Marvell Technology has confirmed that it is eliminating research and development staffs in China – the third U.S. chipmaker that has done so this year as the U.S.-China tech rivalry intensifies. This will hobble China’s chip ambitions and worsen its talent shortfall in the field of designing and manufacturing cutting-edge computer chips.

  • Economic Sanctions Have a Poor Success Rate

    Economic sanctions have become the weapon of choice in the United States’ diplomatic and strategic arsenal. Trade tariffs, export controls and other financial penalties offer a quick means to punish ‘bad behavior’. However, sanctions have a poor success rate, have high economic costs, and may also have massive unanticipated consequences for innocent bystanders.

  • What, If Any, Are the Chances of Toppling Putin and Who Might Take Over?

    There is a consensus among most of the Russian elite, including liberals (although it seems to be waning in recent times): there is no such thing as a truly post-Putin Russia. Putinism is so embedded in the country’s political, social and economic institutions and relationships that it’s almost impossible to imagine. A realistic prognosis of a post-Putin Russia and succession plan must take this into account.

  • Israel Presenting U.S. With Intelligence on Iranian Drones Used in Ukraine

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog shared intelligence about Iranian drones being used by Russian forces in Ukraine when he met Wednesday with U.S. President Joe Biden.

  • Will China Try to Take Taiwan in Xi’s Third Term?

    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s success in securing an unprecedented third term this weekend has fueled speculation on whether he will try to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — the self-ruled island seen by Beijing as a part of China — in the next few years. Partly fueling the speculation is that Xi, the strongest leader China has had in years, has often called for achieving China’s “rejuvenation,” which includes reunifying with Taiwan.

  • Companies Weigh Fallout from U.S. Ban on Sending Chip Tech to China

    The new U.S. ban the transfer of advanced U.S. semiconductor technology to China affects not only U.S. firms that sell to China, but any company whose products contain American semiconductor technology. Semiconductor companies and other tech firms that count China among their largest single markets are facing potentially severe damage to their revenues.

  • Sixty Years After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Nuclear Threat Feels Chillingly Immediate

    Graham Allison, author of Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, talks about how Kennedy and Khrushchev stepped back from brink, and says that Western leaders are worried that Putin might not.

  • The Promise and Peril of Guyana’s Oil Boom

    Most people may not have even heard of Guyana, a tiny country on the northeast coast of South America, but the former British colony is in the midst of an oil boom of staggering proportions. The vast oil reserves discovered off the Guyana coast will soon make Guyana a major oil producer. The question is whether Guyana will escape what economists call the “Resource Curse” — the phenomenon which sees economies that are blessed with natural resources experience less favorable development outcomes than their resource-poor counterparts.

  • Who Are Russia’s War Hawks, and Do They Matter?

    The evolving views of hard-liners within Russia’s paramilitary, media, and national security establishments offer important clues as to the direction Putin will take the war in Ukraine.

  • Retribution and Regime Change

    Everything that now happens in this war, including the murderous missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, has to be understood in terms of the logic of Putin’s exposed position as a failed war leader. What we are witnessing, in other words, are the consequences of Putin’s weakness.

  • “The Most Dangerous Man in the World”: The Life and Times of Vladimir Putin

    How did he manage to rise from a communal apartment in suburban Leningrad and a mediocre early career in the KGB to become Russia’s all-powerful president? What has driven this former spy, who was once described as so forgettable that he ‘disappeared into the wallpaper’, to launch a war on Ukraine?

  • Brazil’s Election and South America’s Looming Migration Woes

    The second round Brazil’s presidential election, to be held 30 October, might plunge the highly polarized country into a political chaos. One side-effect would be the mass migration of Brazilians fleeing instability, exacerbating the hectic state of migration at the U.S. southern border. Brazilian migrants will join the growing number of migrants from Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in reshaping migration trends.

  • How the Biden Administration Is Responding to Putin’s Threats to Go Nuclear

    Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would not necessarily be considered in contravention of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, whereby an attack on one is considered an attack on all and requires collective military defense. But experts say that a case could be made that if radiation from use of a nuclear warhead were to spill over into a NATO country, this could be construed as an attack.

  • OPEC Agrees to Cut Oil Production

    The 23-member alliance has decided to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day. The move could increase crude oil prices and aid Russia, which is grappling with Western attempts to reduce its financing.

  • Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage: How an Attack Could Have Been Carried Out and Why Europe Was Defenseless

    Whatever caused the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, it appears to be the first major attack on critical “subsea” (underwater) infrastructure in Europe. This raises the question of the vulnerabilities of European pipelines, electricity and internet cables, and other maritime infrastructure. Europe will have to revisit its policies for protecting them.