• Europe After the Ukraine War

    The war in Ukraine is still raging, and its outcome not yet certain, but there is no doubt that the war, in Ralph Cohen’s words, is “a watershed historical event.” He highlights four macro-levels trends which are upending the strategic balance in Europe. Russia will likely emerge weaker but, perhaps, no less dangerous, but Europe will likely become stronger militarily, less energy dependent, and more unified against Russia.

  • A Solution to the Ukraine War Emerges

    Russian and Ukrainian sources said that both sides now agree that the likely solution to the Ukraine crisis is a neutral Ukraine with its own armed forces, but which is not a member of NATO. The examples of Austria and Sweden have been proposed as models. The status of the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region is still a sticking point, but both sides say that the atmosphere in the negotiations has become more positive and constructive.

  • U.S. Names Colombia a Major Non-NATO Ally

    The United States intends to name Colombia a “major non-NATO ally” — a particularly timely announcement for a South American nation seen as a bulwark against Venezuela, which is a Russian ally and foe of the United States.

  • War in Ukraine Could Cut Global Supply of Essential Elements for Making Green Technology

    The EU imports 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, and nearly half of the five million barrels of crude oil Russia exports daily go to Europe. Decisive action by major economies to reduce coal, oil and gas imports from one of the world’s largest sources could accelerate the transition to green energy globally. But there’s a catch. Disruption to the supply of critical metals and other materials caused by the war in Ukraine could stall the roll-out of alternative technologies.

  • U.S. Calls for War Crimes Probe into Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed calls Thursday from world leaders for an international war crimes investigation into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its bombing of civilians, including children and pregnant women at a maternity hospital.

  • Putin May Use Chechen War Playbook in Ukraine

    The Russian military campaign in Ukraine has been slower than expected, and Vladimir Putin may turn to the indiscriminate tactics of the wars in Chechnya that turned Chechen cities to rubble in the 1990s and early 2000s, human rights activists say.

  • Four Comments on the Situation in Ukraine

    After two weeks of costly fighting and widespread destruction, it is clear that Russia has launched its invasion of Ukraine with several flawed assumptions, which led to a flawed operational approach. The response of the West has been unified and impressive – and one of the likely lasting changes which has been brought about by the war, has been the sea change in the German approach to European politics and security, and the role of Germany in both.

  • Is Putin Irrational? Nuclear Strategic Theory on How to Deter Potentially Irrational Opponents

    Vladimir Putin’s astonishing lapse of judgment in invading Ukraine has fueled speculation that the Russian president may have taken leave of his senses. If this assessments is accurate, then the world faces a highly disturbing situation: a mad king in possession of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. If Putin is not a rational adversary, then the policies that would deter a more-reasonable man may fail or even backfire.

  • China Expands Influence in Central America

    With a library here, a power station there, China is using aid and investment to increase its presence in Central America, posing a challenge to the United States’ 2-century-old diplomatic dominance in the region.

  • Ukrainians Fear Putin Has Chosen 'Grozny Option'

    “Grozny” is on the lips of many Ukrainians in the port city, a reference to the near destruction of the Chechen capital in late 1999 to early 2000, when Putin was prime minister and in the process of succeeding Boris Yeltsin as president.

  • As War Loomed, U.S. Armed Ukraine to Hit Russian Aircraft, Tanks and Prep for Urban Combat

    Declassified documents show that the United States substantially augmented its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality. The United States has committed about $3 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

  • It’s Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better in Ukraine

    Military and intelligence analysts and Ukraine scholars offered a somber assessment of the weeks ahead in Ukraine, saying that despite the resistance offered by Ukrainian fighters, the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as the fighting will grow more brutal and deadly before serious talks begin.

  • Putin’s Catastrophic War of Choice: Lessons Learned (So Far)

    Although the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve rapidly, there are already several vital lessons to glean from Russia’s incursion into the sovereign territory of its neighbor.

  • Why Ukraine Is Key to Russia's Pursuit of Great Power Status

    Putin believes that Russia has no choice but to remain as one of the agenda-setting powers of the world. His view of “sovereign democracy” is that a Russia that lacks the wherewithal to defend itself from outside pressure will find itself forced to adopt Western standards or a Chinese diktat.

  • What Are Russia’s Strategic Aims and How Effectively Are They Achieving Them?

    In his “declaration of war” speech to the nation on February 24, Putin made clear that his overarching strategic goal is to blur, if not eradicate, the distinction between Russia and Ukraine. He aims to achieve that goal by decapitating the Ukrainian political leadership, defeating of the Ukrainian armed forces, and destroying Ukraine as a functioning independent state. How will the Russian high command achieve these goals?