• Ukrainians Fear Putin Has Chosen 'Grozny Option'

    “Grozny” is on the lips of many Ukrainians in the port city, a reference to the near destruction of the Chechen capital in late 1999 to early 2000, when Putin was prime minister and in the process of succeeding Boris Yeltsin as president.

  • As War Loomed, U.S. Armed Ukraine to Hit Russian Aircraft, Tanks and Prep for Urban Combat

    Declassified documents show that the United States substantially augmented its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality. The United States has committed about $3 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

  • It’s Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better in Ukraine

    Military and intelligence analysts and Ukraine scholars offered a somber assessment of the weeks ahead in Ukraine, saying that despite the resistance offered by Ukrainian fighters, the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as the fighting will grow more brutal and deadly before serious talks begin.

  • Putin’s Catastrophic War of Choice: Lessons Learned (So Far)

    Although the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve rapidly, there are already several vital lessons to glean from Russia’s incursion into the sovereign territory of its neighbor.

  • Why Ukraine Is Key to Russia's Pursuit of Great Power Status

    Putin believes that Russia has no choice but to remain as one of the agenda-setting powers of the world. His view of “sovereign democracy” is that a Russia that lacks the wherewithal to defend itself from outside pressure will find itself forced to adopt Western standards or a Chinese diktat.

  • What Are Russia’s Strategic Aims and How Effectively Are They Achieving Them?

    In his “declaration of war” speech to the nation on February 24, Putin made clear that his overarching strategic goal is to blur, if not eradicate, the distinction between Russia and Ukraine. He aims to achieve that goal by decapitating the Ukrainian political leadership, defeating of the Ukrainian armed forces, and destroying Ukraine as a functioning independent state. How will the Russian high command achieve these goals?

  • How Are Western Arms Supplies for Ukraine Getting There?

    In an unprecedented move, the EU is financing the purchase and delivery of arms and weapons to Ukraine. Other Western countries are committing to arms deliveries, too. But how will they get there and how quickly?

  • Why Putin’s War with Ukraine Is a Miscalculation

    Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical earthquake that will cause repercussions far beyond Europe. But the Russian president might be planting the seeds for the demise of his regime by overreaching.

  • Addressing the Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

    What are the origins of the current divergence in U.S. and Russian threat perceptions regarding preemption? What are the practical consequences of Russia’s threat perceptions for U.S. interests? Could changes to current policies address Russian concerns while delivering the benefits afforded the United States by the status quo? A new RAND study offers answers to these questions.

  • Pan-European “Supergrid”' Could Cut 32% from Energy Costs

    A European wide ‘supergrid’ could cut almost a third from energy costs according to a new study finds. The 32% cost reduction identified is borne primarily from the expansion of European power flows - derestricting them to allow the location of renewable generation to be optimized, thereby significantly decreasing the total installed capacity.

  • Did the West Promise Moscow NATO Would Not Expand? It's Complicated.

    Did the United States, thirty years ago, promise Russia that if Russia agreed to Germany’s unification, NATO “would not expand one inch eastward”? The belief that the United States made that promise, and then betrayed it, continues to form a central grievance in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrative about Moscow’s ties with the West.

  • European Union Supports Lithuania in Trade Fight with China

    In a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Lithuania alleges that that China has violated the trade body’s rules by carrying out against Lithuania coercive actions that also interfered with the EU’s all-member-inclusive single market and supply chain.

  • Russia’s Energy Role in Europe: What Is at Stake with the Ukraine Crisis

    The prospect of a major Russian offensive in Ukraine has brought European dependence on Russian energy into sharp relief and set off a scramble for alternatives.

  • Can the U.S. Find Enough Natural Gas Sources to Neutralize Russia’s Energy Leverage Over Europe?

    The prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine has raised fears of an energy crisis in Europe. To weaken Russia’s leverage, the Biden administration is working to secure additional gas shipments to Europe from other sources. “Putin may be willing to bet that an energy pricing crisis in Europe will sow popular discontent, scotch the energy transition and help Russia win concessions on NATO’s positioning of troops and missiles. But there is little evidence that Europe will react that way,” says an energy expert.

  • Geography is Destiny: Ukraine’s Options Are Limited

    Russia is much stronger militarily than Ukraine. When Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield, it never hesitated to launch massive, indiscriminate, and destructive attacks on the civilian population and infrastructure, as was demonstrated in the two Chechnya wars. If there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, one way or another, will win it. This is important to note as the crisis over Ukraine deepens, and as many – too many – voices in the West are, in effect, urging Ukraine: “You fight Russia, and we’ll hold your coat.” This is a cavalier, and likely exceedingly costly, advice.