• One Year After: How Putin Got Germany Wrong

    Vladimir Putin has made many strategic mistakes, but one misjudgment stands out: Germany. Putin considered Germany too dependent on Russian energy, too weak militarily, and too business-minded to mount any significant resistance to his war. He was wrong. Germany, once dangerously dependent on Russian energy, has defied Russian expectations in its reaction to war in Ukraine.

  • “The Most Dangerous Possibility”: U.S. Fears of a Russia-Ukraine War, 30 Years Ago

    On January 5, 1993, just days before Bill Clinton was inaugurated as U.S. president, the outgoing secretary of state, Lawrence Eagleburger, finished a 23-page memo to his successor, Warren Christopher, who would be taking over in a few weeks. The memo was a rundown of global hot spots “Ukraine not the most likely but certainly the most dangerous possibility,” he wrote.

  • U.S. General's Bellicose China Memo Highlights Civilian-Military Divide

    A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 may reflect a growing disconnect between the way the United States’ civilian and military leadership view the relationship between the world’s two largest economic powers.

  • German and U.S. Tanks Will Be Critical in Ukraine’s Next Phase Against Russia

    The main battle tanks that the United States and Germany have agreed to provide Ukraine will help its forces punch through Russian fortifications and retake lost territory.

  • 8 Lessons for Taiwan from Russia’s War in Ukraine

    While the fighting in Ukraine is on land, and thus very different from the maritime battlefield that would surround Taiwan, there are still many things Taiwan can learn from Ukraine’s defensive operations.

  • China Is a Threat Not Because It is Ascendant, but Because It Is on a Downward Trajectory

    The prevailing consensus for the past few years has been that an ascendant China is threatening to overtake a slumping America. Because research suggests that a geopolitical power transition is most likely to take place when a surging challenger overtakes an exhausted hegemon, many believe that a turbo-charged China has increased the likelihood of conflict with America. In their book Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, Hal Brands and Michael Beckley challenge this notion and offer a more nuanced view.

  • What Does China's Arctic Presence Mean to the United States?

    Researchers looked at where China is operating in the Arctic, what it wants, and what that could mean for regional security. They concluded that China has made only limited inroads in the Arctic, but that’s not for lack of trying.

  • Makiivka and Bakhmut: The Impact of Russian Casualties

    When we step back from the daily news the underlying trends of this war favor Ukraine. It is learning to cope with the repeated Russian attacks on its critical infrastructure, and once spring comes the impact will decline, while it has been getting bolder in its attacks on facilities on Russian territory. Here lies the biggest danger for Putin - more retreats rather than more casualties - and a developing aura of futility. The question of what it takes to get Russia to abandon its war of conquest remains unanswered but that does not mean that no answer will ever be found.

  • All Talk, but Not a Lot of Walk: Few Western Extremists Made It to Ukraine in 2022

    In the weeks following the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, up to 20,000 foreigners expressing an interest in joining the Ukrainian war effort. Precise numbers of foreign fighters having traveled to Ukraine and involved in combat since the end of February 2022 are currently difficult to establish, but given the available information, it is reasonable to deduce that only a fraction of those who indicated an interest in traveling to Ukraine after February 2022 actually did so.

  • Scholars at Western Universities Rethink Russian Studies in Wake of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

    In Ukraine, Moscow’s unprovoked war has killed tens of thousands of people and laid cities and towns to waste. At universities across the West, it has thrust Russia’s history of imperialism and colonialism to the forefront of Slavic and Eurasian academic discussion — from history and political science to art and literature.

  • Europe Faces a Chilling Couple of Years, but Russia Will Lose the Energy Showdown

    In the European Union this winter, fears of rolling blackouts triggered by Russian energy export cuts amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine have subsided thanks to good luck, good weather, and quick action. “In the long run, Russia simply can’t win this energy war,” says an expert.

  • ‘Beijing’s Plan to Crush Taiwan Under the “Wheels of History”’

    The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ideological commitment to the unification of Taiwan is presented as the ultimate demonstration of China’s development under the CCP leadership, what party chairman Xi Jinping calls the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’.

  • U.S. Military Expert: “Ukraine's Position on the Battlefield Is Very Strong”

    John Spencer says Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine anytime soon but he predicts Ukraine will ultimately prevail. He says the recent decision by Washington to deliver a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine may not be a game-changing move, but it could trigger other Western allies to donate similar systems, bolstering Kyiv’s defenses.

  • Who Can Guarantee Russian Security?

    What Makes Putin Insecure? Putin’s insecurity might start with anxiety about his personal future, but he has extended this into a vision for Russia that involves a permanent struggle with the West and its liberalism. In the end the biggest threats to Russian security do not lie outside its borders but inside its capital.

  • Ten Most Significant World Events in 2022

    Future historians may come to regard 2022 as a hinge in history, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another. Major war returned to Europe, with the attendant threats of nuclear strikes, and the door closed firmly shut on the U.S. policy of strategic engagement with China. As 2022 comes to a close, here are the top ten most notable world events of the past year.