• The Rise and Fall of the Belt and Road Initiative

    Amidst accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy,” Chinese companies seek more overseas direct investment opportunities and fewer foreign contracted projects as Xi’s flagship initiative is stymied by poor risk management.

  • Better Together: Japan and the Five Eyes Need to Focus on Critical Minerals

    Critical minerals are being consumed in greater volumes than ever before, and the level of demand will only increase over the next 10 to 20 years, and beyond. The governments of Japan and the Five Eyes countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) are aware that critical minerals, including rare-earth elements, will be increasingly needed as the world shifts from fossil-fuel systems to renewable energy sources. The partner nations are also clear about the challenges and opportunities, especially given that the supply chains for several critical minerals have only one or few dominant key players.

  • Polish Shale Gas May Be the answer to the EU's Energy Shortage

    Although there is currently no shale gas production in Europe, Polish energy experts say it could easily be brought back to the table to alleviate the European energy crisis.

  • A Balancing Act: What to Do About Taiwan

    If one of the world’s liberal democracies were to be taken over by a neo-totalitarian superpower, what would this imply for the future of freedom in Asia? What should we make of China’s claims about Taiwan? Should the U.S. replace its current policy of “strategic ambiguity” with a more explicit commitment to Taiwan’s defense?

  • Taiwan’s High-End Semiconductors: Supply Chain Interdependence and Geopolitical Vulnerability

    What are the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s dominance in global semiconductor production? How would the peaceful annexation or outright invasion of Taiwan by China affect the United States, its allies and partners, and the global economy? What are the United States’ options for mitigating or reversing the unfavorable effects of either unification scenario?

  • Australian Government Needs to Go ack to Basics to Build an Australian Rare-Earths Industry

    China has moved well beyond an aspiration to monopolize the production of rare earths. It aims for leadership in the production of the full range of goods making use of rare earths—from electric cars to wind turbines, MRI scanners, lasers and rocket motors.

  • The U.S. Needs to Ditch Its America-First Approach to Critical Minerals

    More and more countries with advanced economies have begun to prioritize the supply and value chains for critical minerals and rare-earth elements because of their links with advanced and low-emissions technologies. In some countries, governments have responded to the critical minerals challenge by adopting a new version of economic nationalism. But unilateral responses will not produce secure or reliable supply chains. Indeed, economic nationalism may actually aggravate the problem.

  • China Said to Ask Domestic Firms to Shun Big Four Accountants

    In a possible sign that the so-called “decoupling” of the U.S. and Chinese economies is continuing, a recent media report said that the Chinese government has urged large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to cease using the world’s biggest global accounting firms to audit their onshore businesses.

  • All Wars Eventually End – Here Are 3 Situations That Will Lead Russia and Ukraine to Make Peace

    All wars end, however, and research shows that almost half end in some type of agreement to stop the fighting. The others end in victory for one side or when, for a variety of reasons, the fighting simply peters out. As Ukraine readies to enter its second year of a widespread war with Russia, it would be useful to consider how wars end and what conditions need to be in place before the war between Russia and Ukraine might draw to a close.

  • One Year After: How Putin Got Germany Wrong

    Vladimir Putin has made many strategic mistakes, but one misjudgment stands out: Germany. Putin considered Germany too dependent on Russian energy, too weak militarily, and too business-minded to mount any significant resistance to his war. He was wrong. Germany, once dangerously dependent on Russian energy, has defied Russian expectations in its reaction to war in Ukraine.

  • “The Most Dangerous Possibility”: U.S. Fears of a Russia-Ukraine War, 30 Years Ago

    On January 5, 1993, just days before Bill Clinton was inaugurated as U.S. president, the outgoing secretary of state, Lawrence Eagleburger, finished a 23-page memo to his successor, Warren Christopher, who would be taking over in a few weeks. The memo was a rundown of global hot spots “Ukraine not the most likely but certainly the most dangerous possibility,” he wrote.

  • U.S. General's Bellicose China Memo Highlights Civilian-Military Divide

    A controversial memo from a U.S. Air Force general predicting war with China in 2025 may reflect a growing disconnect between the way the United States’ civilian and military leadership view the relationship between the world’s two largest economic powers.

  • German and U.S. Tanks Will Be Critical in Ukraine’s Next Phase Against Russia

    The main battle tanks that the United States and Germany have agreed to provide Ukraine will help its forces punch through Russian fortifications and retake lost territory.

  • 8 Lessons for Taiwan from Russia’s War in Ukraine

    While the fighting in Ukraine is on land, and thus very different from the maritime battlefield that would surround Taiwan, there are still many things Taiwan can learn from Ukraine’s defensive operations.

  • China Is a Threat Not Because It is Ascendant, but Because It Is on a Downward Trajectory

    The prevailing consensus for the past few years has been that an ascendant China is threatening to overtake a slumping America. Because research suggests that a geopolitical power transition is most likely to take place when a surging challenger overtakes an exhausted hegemon, many believe that a turbo-charged China has increased the likelihood of conflict with America. In their book Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, Hal Brands and Michael Beckley challenge this notion and offer a more nuanced view.