• Four Comments on the Situation in Ukraine

    After two weeks of costly fighting and widespread destruction, it is clear that Russia has launched its invasion of Ukraine with several flawed assumptions, which led to a flawed operational approach. The response of the West has been unified and impressive – and one of the likely lasting changes which has been brought about by the war, has been the sea change in the German approach to European politics and security, and the role of Germany in both.

  • Is Putin Irrational? Nuclear Strategic Theory on How to Deter Potentially Irrational Opponents

    Vladimir Putin’s astonishing lapse of judgment in invading Ukraine has fueled speculation that the Russian president may have taken leave of his senses. If this assessments is accurate, then the world faces a highly disturbing situation: a mad king in possession of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. If Putin is not a rational adversary, then the policies that would deter a more-reasonable man may fail or even backfire.

  • China Expands Influence in Central America

    With a library here, a power station there, China is using aid and investment to increase its presence in Central America, posing a challenge to the United States’ 2-century-old diplomatic dominance in the region.

  • Ukrainians Fear Putin Has Chosen 'Grozny Option'

    Grozny” is on the lips of many Ukrainians in the port city, a reference to the near destruction of the Chechen capital in late 1999 to early 2000, when Putin was prime minister and in the process of succeeding Boris Yeltsin as president.

  • As War Loomed, U.S. Armed Ukraine to Hit Russian Aircraft, Tanks and Prep for Urban Combat

    Declassified documents show that the United States substantially augmented its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality. The United States has committed about $3 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

  • It’s Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better in Ukraine

    Military and intelligence analysts and Ukraine scholars offered a somber assessment of the weeks ahead in Ukraine, saying that despite the resistance offered by Ukrainian fighters, the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as the fighting will grow more brutal and deadly before serious talks begin.

  • Putin’s Catastrophic War of Choice: Lessons Learned (So Far)

    Although the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve rapidly, there are already several vital lessons to glean from Russia’s incursion into the sovereign territory of its neighbor.

  • Why Ukraine Is Key to Russia's Pursuit of Great Power Status

    Putin believes that Russia has no choice but to remain as one of the agenda-setting powers of the world. His view of “sovereign democracy” is that a Russia that lacks the wherewithal to defend itself from outside pressure will find itself forced to adopt Western standards or a Chinese diktat.

  • What Are Russia’s Strategic Aims and How Effectively Are They Achieving Them?

    In his “declaration of war” speech to the nation on February 24, Putin made clear that his overarching strategic goal is to blur, if not eradicate, the distinction between Russia and Ukraine. He aims to achieve that goal by decapitating the Ukrainian political leadership, defeating of the Ukrainian armed forces, and destroying Ukraine as a functioning independent state. How will the Russian high command achieve these goals?

  • How Are Western Arms Supplies for Ukraine Getting There?

    In an unprecedented move, the EU is financing the purchase and delivery of arms and weapons to Ukraine. Other Western countries are committing to arms deliveries, too. But how will they get there and how quickly?

  • Why Putin’s War with Ukraine Is a Miscalculation

    Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical earthquake that will cause repercussions far beyond Europe. But the Russian president might be planting the seeds for the demise of his regime by overreaching.

  • Addressing the Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

    What are the origins of the current divergence in U.S. and Russian threat perceptions regarding preemption? What are the practical consequences of Russia’s threat perceptions for U.S. interests? Could changes to current policies address Russian concerns while delivering the benefits afforded the United States by the status quo? A new RAND study offers answers to these questions.

  • Pan-European “Supergrid”' Could Cut 32% from Energy Costs

    A European wide ‘supergrid’ could cut almost a third from energy costs according to a new study finds. The 32% cost reduction identified is borne primarily from the expansion of European power flows - derestricting them to allow the location of renewable generation to be optimized, thereby significantly decreasing the total installed capacity.

  • Did the West Promise Moscow NATO Would Not Expand? It's Complicated.

    Did the United States, thirty years ago, promise Russia that if Russia agreed to Germany’s unification, NATO “would not expand one inch eastward”? The belief that the United States made that promise, and then betrayed it, continues to form a central grievance in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrative about Moscow’s ties with the West.

  • European Union Supports Lithuania in Trade Fight with China

    In a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Lithuania alleges that that China has violated the trade body’s rules by carrying out against Lithuania coercive actions that also interfered with the EU’s all-member-inclusive single market and supply chain.