• Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

    The Middle East and Central Asia are projected to become hotter and drier, with reduced access to fresh water, resulting from climate change. These changes could lead to greater conflict in U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.

  • Can Hamas Really Be Completely “Eliminated”?

    The short answer, military analysts say, is “no.” The long answer is more complex. Israel’s campaign may degrade the group’s capabilities but defeating its ideology is likely impossible without a political solution.

  • Israelis and Palestinians Warring Over a Homeland Is Far from Unique

    Seen from the perspective of territorial conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is far from unique. Ultimately, the tragedy of deep attachment to a homeland territory lies in the fact that while it can create a sense of belonging for one group, it too often comes at the expense of another.

  • No, Japan Is Not Ready for AUKUS

    It is a natural strategic choice for Japan to join in advanced military technology cooperation under the trilateral Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement – turning the alliance into “JAUKUS” – but there is a fundamental stumbling block: Japan’s lack of effective counter-espionage laws.

  • International Partnership Focuses on Insider Threats

    Insider threats can take many forms. They are real, and if not identified, they can be costly and damaging.

  • Outsourcing Surveillance: A Cost-Effective Strategy to Maintain Maritime Supremacy

    Persistent surveillance is one of the most valuable types of surveillance missions. But, Josh Portzer and Aaron Stein write, “Persistent surveillance is a challenging problem for two reasons: capacity and cost. In today’s budgetary climate, “simply increasing U.S. military capacity is not tenable. [But] by increasing the number of sensors globally, the Department of Defense would not only gain valuable, near-persistent surveillance data in areas of interest at (relatively) affordable prices, but also would enjoy the option of gray-zone operations given the strategic ambiguity that outsourcing provides.”

  • How Do Civilians Respond to Political Violence?

    When conflict breaks out, civilians inevitably suffer. But they do not react uniformly, with some fleeing, others staying, and still others joining the fray. Civilians’ perceptions of their own agency often shape their behavior. Aidan Milliff writes that this understanding has implications for policy: The United States and other countries, in their efforts to help civilians who face political violence, should focus more on changing these civilians’ perceptions.

  • Preparing U.S., Partners for Radiological Response

    After the September 11th attacks, security professionals worried that terrorists might detonate a “dirty bomb” – an explosive device enhanced with radiological source materials. Responders for this type of event had to be trained.

  • The Path to Peace in Gaza Lies in Defeating Hamas

    Israel cannot continue living with a Hamas-controlled Gaza. The untenability of having Hamas on Israel’s border has long been clear. However, to dismantle and disarm the group was always going to involve grievous civilian bloodshed and the inflaming of anti-Israeli opinion—a prohibitive proposition for Israel prior to 7 October. Yet now Israel finds itself facing this task anyway, which is a reminder to the world that tolerating the intolerable—even grudgingly, because the alternatives are too difficult—is never sustainable in the long term. This was demonstrated on 7 October.

  • Regional Security Analysts Say Africa at Risk of Drone Terrorism

    African terrorist groups are using global affiliations to acquire and modify drones for their own needs. Though the drones are not yet being used to launch attacks, the growing use of drones by terrorist groups is only a question of time, and analysts worry that in the long run, they could change the balance of power with governments.

  • Japan Military Aid Expands Southeast Asia Footprint

    A new security assistance scheme is allowing Japan to expand its role in helping smaller countries like the Philippines cope with China’s military ambitions.

  • Hamas Isn’t the First Military Group to Hide Behind Civilians as a Way to Wage War

    Using places and things civilians need, like hospitals, as a means to fight a war is considered a weapon of the weak. It is a way to use another side’s values against it. I think it is clear that Hamas has – in this war and historically – tried to embed themselves and weapons in places civilians live or visit, in order to make it more difficult for the Israelis to target them. But using civilians to further a military advantage is not a new phenomenon.

  • Is the Fear of Cyberwar Worse Than Cyberwar Itself?

    Unrealistic cyberwar expectations could hold the insurance industry back, and that’s the real economic security problem. The “hyperbolic characterization of cyberwar is likely a bigger problem than the threat of cyberwar itself. The problem is one of economic security,” Tom Johansmeyer writes.

  • The Chinese Military’s Skyrocketing Influence in Space

    China has already begun leading the world in military satellite launches, sending 45 defense-related satellites into orbit in 2022. That was 15 more than the US sent into orbit. While the People’s Liberation Army’s space plans are not reliably disclosed to the public, its actions make it clear that China has found its way to space, and it plans to stay.

  • Civilian Deaths and Proportionality in the Israel–Hamas War

    Hamas invites civilian casualties by its positioning of military assets, and now that it knows that Israel’s risk tolerance is well beyond anything it has seen before, it likely sees outcries over more civilian casualties leading to a ceasefire as its only chance of survival. And Washington hopes that Israel can inflict grievous damage on Hamas before the White House will have to acquiesce to public opinion and back some kind of ceasefire. Israel, Hamas and Washington are all accepting of civilian casualties in Gaza—they only differ in how many and why.