• The U.S. Needs to Ditch Its America-First Approach to Critical Minerals

    More and more countries with advanced economies have begun to prioritize the supply and value chains for critical minerals and rare-earth elements because of their links with advanced and low-emissions technologies. In some countries, governments have responded to the critical minerals challenge by adopting a new version of economic nationalism. But unilateral responses will not produce secure or reliable supply chains. Indeed, economic nationalism may actually aggravate the problem.

  • Havana Syndrome Not Caused by Directed-Energy Weapons: U.S. Intelligence

    In 2016 in Havana, Cuba’s capital, a growing number of U.S. diplomats reported symptoms of unexplained ailment, and over the next five years, employees in many other U.S. embassies complained about identical symptoms, which included dizziness, nausea, headaches, ringing ears, and disorientation. A comprehensive investigation by several agencies of the U.S. intelligence community has now concluded that the symptoms of what came to be called the Havana Syndrome were not the result of an adversary nation using directed-energy or radiation weapons.

  • Directed Energy Weapons Shoot Painful but Non-Lethal Beams – Are Similar Weapons Behind the Havana Syndrome?

    The latest episodes of so-called Havana syndrome, a series of unexplained ailments afflicting U.S. and Canadian diplomats and spies, span the globe. The cause of these incidents is unknown, but speculation in the U.S. centers on electromagnetic beams.

  • China’s Militarization of Meteorological Balloons

    Beijing’s spy balloon is a clear example of an emerging technology developed for military and intelligence operations but that crucially evolved out of civilian and scientific programs. China’s balloon-technology programs contain sober lessons about Beijing’s incremental acquisition of foreign intellectual property and its technology partnerships with Western research institutions.

  • Spy Balloon Reveals China’s ‘Near Space’ Military Program

    Chinese spy balloon drifting across the United States this month was a demonstration of a little-noticed program which has been discussed in China’s state-controlled media for more than a decade in articles extolling its potential military applications.

  • One Year After: How Putin Got Germany Wrong

    Vladimir Putin has made many strategic mistakes, but one misjudgment stands out: Germany. Putin considered Germany too dependent on Russian energy, too weak militarily, and too business-minded to mount any significant resistance to his war. He was wrong. Germany, once dangerously dependent on Russian energy, has defied Russian expectations in its reaction to war in Ukraine.

  • Why Did So Many Get the Ukraine Invasion Predictions So Wrong?

    As the drumbeat of war grew louder in the months before February 24, 2022, many Western intelligence officers, military analysts, and political scientists believed Russia would not invade. Wrong. They also looked hard at what was known about Russia’s modernized, reformed, and well-financed armed forces — and many believed that if Russia invaded, Ukraine’s military would be routed. Wrong again.

  • Winners and Losers in the Russia–Ukraine Cyberwar

    Much of the focus has been on the kinetic war in Ukraine, but the cyber conflict has also continued unabated with both sides engaged in a variety of maneuvers, from attacks on critical infrastructure to spreading misinformation. Along the way, a number of existing preconceptions about cyber conflict in an active war scenario have been upended —chief among them was the expectation that cyber attacks would play a decisive part in the conflict and that Russia would dominate in this domain.

  • “The Most Dangerous Possibility”: U.S. Fears of a Russia-Ukraine War, 30 Years Ago

    On January 5, 1993, just days before Bill Clinton was inaugurated as U.S. president, the outgoing secretary of state, Lawrence Eagleburger, finished a 23-page memo to his successor, Warren Christopher, who would be taking over in a few weeks. The memo was a rundown of global hot spots “Ukraine not the most likely but certainly the most dangerous possibility,” he wrote.

  • U.S., China Compete for Africa's Rare Earth Minerals

    African countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo have some of the largest deposits of these resources, but China currently dominates the supply chain as well as their refinement and the U.S. wants to reduce its reliance on the Asian giant.

  • What China’s Surveillance Balloon Says About U.S.-China Relations

    The question of what information the Chinese were trying to uncover using a balloon – when China’s many satellites could glean this same information – is intriguing. A far more important issue, however, is what this episode says about the ability, or more accurately inability, of Washington and Beijing to manage a future crisis. Worryingly, it appears that neither the United States nor China is prepared for a serious crisis.

  • Chinese Spy Balloon Over the U.S.: An Aerospace Expert Explains How the Balloons Work and What They Can See

    Balloons are much closer to the ground than any satellites, so they can see even more clearly. And balloons are moving relatively slowly, so they also have a degree of persistence. However, spying is not usually done these days with balloons because they are a relatively easy target and are not completely controllable.

  • China 'Spy Balloon:' Why Doesn't the Pentagon Shoot It Down?

    Espionage is all about secrets — keeping and revealing them. But here’s what we can say about the alleged spy balloon.

  • Suspected Israeli Drone Strike in Iran Part of New 'Containment Strategy'

    Four Israeli kamikaze quadcopters hit and destroyed an Iranian military facility in Isfahan on January 28. The production facility, located inside a military base, was used to produce drones and mid-range missiles. In the last months, Israel has expanded its attacks on Iran’s military, targeting not only nuclear weapons-related targets but also production facilities for advanced arms.

  • German and U.S. Tanks Will Be Critical in Ukraine’s Next Phase Against Russia

    The main battle tanks that the United States and Germany have agreed to provide Ukraine will help its forces punch through Russian fortifications and retake lost territory.