AFRICA WATCHThe Niger Coup Could Threaten the Entire Sahel
The coup in Niger, once seen as the cornerstone of U.S. counterterrorism efforts in West Africa, now threatens wider regional instability and could potentially open the door to further Russian influence.
On July 26, a faction of the Niger military overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, citing a “deteriorating security situation” in the ongoing fight against extremist groups that has drawn in the United States and other Western powers. Appearing to have the support of the full military, the coup plotters installed General Abdourahmane “Omar” Tchiani as Niger’s new leader. From captivity, Bazoum has called for resistance to the coup, raising worries of civil conflict. The country’s prime minister and other leaders in the region say the situation could prove to be a “litmus test for West Africa’s democracy.”
Mediation efforts are underway, led by Nigeria and other regional powers. But the junta has warned against outside intervention, and with neighboring Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali expressing support for the coup, fears of a broader conflict are mounting.
What Led to the Coup?
Niger’s politics have been unsettled since its independence from France in 1960, with five successful coups against the government in the capital, Niamey. When President Bazoum took office in 2021, it marked the country’s first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since independence. Bazoum had been replacing senior officers in the security services in recent months, and reportedly had been considering replacing General Tchiani as head of the presidential guard in the days before the coup took place.
Contributing to the instability are numerous ongoing crises. Rates for extreme poverty are over 40 percent, while a changing climate is exacerbating drought and imperiling the country’s agriculture. At the same time, Niger has been embroiled in a battle against insurgent groups since 2011, when chaos in Libya scattered fighters throughout the Sahel region, including in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali. The conflict has killed more than one thousand people across the region since 2019 and displaced more than 2.8 million others, leading experts to call the Sahel the “global epicenter of jihadist violence.”
The escalating fight against extremist groups has deepened tensions between Niger and Western powers, which have intervened with money and personnel. Niger has been called the “cornerstone” of regional antiterrorism efforts by the United States and France; both countries have deployed more than one thousand troops across the country and maintained military bases there from which to target insurgents and gather intelligence. But reports indicate that Niger’s military leadership has grown increasingly disgruntled with this level of support and the campaign’s apparent lack of progress.
